Nba Predictions - June 07, 2009
We pulled in another +3 units in game one as we nailed our 5-unit totals pick (with 31 points to spare) and our moneyline pick on Los Angeles. In the playoffs we are +31 units. In game two, we again come back with three picks.
| WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet) |
| SPORT | WINS-LOSSES | % | NET |
| MLB |
30-24 last 54 picks |
56% | +$700 |
| NBA |
294-233 last 527 picks |
56% | +$12320 |
| NFL |
72-44 last 116 picks |
62% | +$7320 |
| NHL |
17-6 last 23 picks |
74% | +$3190 |
| TOTAL | | | +$23530 |
Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Orlando at Los Angeles Lakers (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Orlando +6.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 202 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Watching game one, it looked like Orlando had a hangover from their big series win against the Cavs. There was a lid on the basket for Orlando. They got tons of great looks - layups, mid-range shots and wide open 3-point looks. They simply couldn't hit. How bad was it for Orlando? They shot 29.9% from the field. That's over 25% worse than their worst playoff shooting performance in the playoffs (40% vs. Boston in game four). That was the worst shooting performance by the Magic all season! If the Magic shot even 40% they are in this game and certainly cover the spread. Instead, we got a 25-point blowout. Now, was that 29.9% shooting a fluke or a result of good defense by the Lakers? It was a fluke. Again, Orlando got plenty of wide open layups and looks. They were just off. The Magic shot 45.6% during the regular season and they have averaged 45.7% in the playoffs (even with this last game thrown in). If Orlando shot their average last game, they would have made 12 more shots so that 25-point deficit disappears. So while most saw an easy convincing Lakers victory, I saw a fluky shooting game for Orlando - one that is very likely not to repeat. Orlando has a very short memory. They are resilient and don't let a bad performance get them down. They were down 2-1 to Philadelphia and won the series. They were down 3-2 to Boston and won the series. After the 40% performance against Boston, they shot 45% the following night. They had a bad outing again after that shooting 37% and rebounded from that performance with a 51.4% performance in their next game. Their worst performance in the playoffs was an 18-point loss to Boston and they won the following game 117-96. Their second-worst performance was a 10-point loss to Cleveland. They won the next game by 13 points. When the games counted (excluding a couple end of the season losses when starters sat), the Magic have consistently come back big after a double-digit loss. They suffered eight such losses during the regular season and came back to outscore the next opponent by an average of nearly 10 points per game. Yes, the playoffs are different, facing the same team again, but the results have been the same. I look for the Lakers to be a bit overconfident after their big win. If the Magic get anywhere close to the same number of good looks at the basket, and they convert closer to their season average, this will be a very close game. The Magic are 14-3 ATS the past two seasons off a double-digit road loss and this season they are 15-3 ATS revenging a loss in which they allowed 100+ points. The Magic get the call here. I also like the UNDER again. We played that as a 5-unit play in game one noting that both teams are averaging less than 200 points in the playoffs yet we saw a total of 206. That was the easiest bet of the playoffs thus far as the teams went UNDER the total by 31 points. Now the oddsmakers are in a real quandary. They realize their total for game one was way off but how far can they adjust it? They've shaved four points off that total but just two baskets isn't enough! The total in this game should be under 200 again and yet it's over 200. The Magic and Lakers have both been playing to totals well under their season average. The 20 Magic playoff games have averaged just 190 points, while the Lakers have averaged 198 in their 19 games. The average of the two is 194. The Lakers have played eight of their last nine playoff games at home UNDER the total and 28 of their last 37 as a favorite UNDER the total. The last six times these two teams have met in Los Angeles, the total has gone UNDER in all but one. Orlando is 12-3 UNDER this season vs. teams that average 103+ ppg while the Lakers are 13-5 UNDER at home vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 3+ ppg. I like the Magic and the UNDER here.
Game: Orlando at Los Angeles Lakers (8:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on First Half UNDER 101 -110 (risk 2 to win 1.8)
I like this game to go UNDER 101 in the first half as this one sets up perfectly. Orlando allowed 55 points in the paint in game one and that will certainly be an area of focus for them tonight. Despite that, only 96 points were scored. These teams have combined for a 24-15 UNDER record in the first-half in the playoffs. While Magic games in the regular season averaged 98.4 points per game, in the playoffs that's dropped to 95.2 (minus three points). Lakers games averaged 103.6 first-half points in the regular season but in the playoffs, that's been cut by over four points per game to 99.5. The last 16 times Orlando has shot under 35%, they have gone 13-3 UNDER in the first-half of their next game. They are 15-4 UNDER in the first half this season revenging a loss and 15-3 UNDER in the first half the past two seasons revenging a double-digit road loss. Over that same span, the Magic are 9-1 UNDER in the first-half after a loss by 15+ points. Expect a renewed defensive effort by Orlando in this game and a low-scoring first-half.
NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-June-02-2009
The Magic did the unthinkable in beating the Cavs, the top team in the league all season and nearly unbeatable at home, in six games. In that series the Magic had many mismatch advantages and to their...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-30-2009
The Cavs rolled through their first eight playoff games, with eight straight double-digit wins. I don't think too many thought they would be down in this series three games to two facing eliminati...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-29-2009
The Lakers took control of the series as expected by winning game five in Los Angeles. The Nuggets are now in a must-win situation and will have to lay it all on the line in this one. Lucky for them t...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-27-2009
The Nuggets and the Lakers have exchanged blows in this series so far, resulting in a 2-2 deadlock through four games. The fact is, these teams are very close and any of these games can go either way....
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-26-2009
The Magic would be leading in this series three games to none if not for a miracle game-winning three-pointer by LeBron James in game two. It's evident that the Cavaliers have a dilemma in this se...
