Basketball Pick - June 05, 2008
Note: We're +91 units in baseball ($9,100 for $100 players) the past three weeks on 78-44 pick performance. We have an early game 5-unit MLB play today FYI.
We are back on the NBA hardwood tonight for the opening stanza of the 2008 NBA Finals and it's case of deja vu all over again as we rekindle the great Lakers vs. Celtics rivalry. We have the two most storied NBA franchises, both #1 seeds and both with star players. Could we ask for anything more?
For those of us who followed pro hoops in the 80's, this harkens back to the glory days of the NBA before it became a showcase for lazy, self-centered players. These two teams remind us of some of those throw-back Boston, LA and Detroit teams and we are again in love with the NBA, at least for now. Will Kevin Garnett finally get the ring he has coveted since his NBA debut as a high school phenom? Or is this the year Kobe Bryant cements his legacy with a championship? We have some strong opinions below.
Over the last three weeks in the NBA playoffs we are hitting at 58% for +17.5 units.
| WUNDERDOG 2008 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet) |
| SPORT | WINS-LOSSES | % | NET |
| MLB |
78-44 last 122 picks |
64% | +$9100 |
| NBA |
30-22 last 52 picks |
58% | +$1750 |
| NHL |
44-26 last 70 picks |
63% | +$3480 |
| TOTAL | | | +$14330 |
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Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Los Angeles Lakers at Boston (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Boston -2.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 192 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
It could be the 80s again as the Celtics and the Lakers square at the Garden for the NBA Championship. After this one is over, these two teams will have combined for half of the 62 NBA Championships. The Celtics earned the homecourt advantage thanks to 66 wins in the regular season. And, that could be all the difference in this series. That advantage is a huge reason why they are even here. The Celtics have now gone 16-1 in their last 17 played at the Garden. Their road struggles have led the odds-makers to conclude that the Lakers are the better team. We are not sure if we agree with that, especially playing in Boston. Yes, the Lakers have the best player in the league. But, Boston has the better defense and a better balance across players. If one player struggles (i.e. Ray Allen), this team can still win because the talent is spread. Perkins and Garnett can slow down the finesse Gasol. Who is going to stop the three-headed monster? There are three players on this team that can beat you while the Lakers essentially have one. The Black Mamba can win games by himself but if he happens to be off (it does happen), the Lakers will not win. The Celtics give up 89.7 ppg while the Lakers give up 101 per game. Didn't someone once say that Defense Wins Championships? On the road the Lakers give up 101.4 while Boston allows 86.9 at home. Boston has only played three games all season at home including the playoffs where they were favored by 4 or less! They won all three of those games. The only meeting at the Garden vs the Lakers had the Celtics an 8-point favorite. Has Boston slipped that far? No. It's just that everyone is picking the "inevitable" Lakers to win this series. It's as if the press has already annointed Kobe the second-coming of Jordan and the Lakers as NBA Champs. So, all of a sudden this game is 5.5 points closer than that first one. We're not buying it. We see the value in this one on the Celtics. The Lakers, since the first round of the playoffs are just 2-3 on the road, and have been outscored by 27 points. The Spurs built a 20-point lead on them in the Lakers' house. Yes, the Lakers won that game, but it tell us that LA is not as inevitable, or as invulnerable, as the talking heads on ESPN would have you believe. This Celtics team is better than any team the Lakers have faced thus far. While it seems strange to call the top-seeded team with the best record in the NBA, and the best defense in the leauge, underrated, we feel Boston is not getting enough respect. The prognosticators said Detroit would despense of them. It didn't happen. Now everyone is picking the Lakers. We like the Celtics to win this game and cover this spread. Kobe and Company's vaunted offense was held to 93 and a season-low 84 points vs a defensive minded San Antonio team on the road last series. This Celtics team is all about defense as 12 of their 20 playoff games have seen the opponent held to the 80s. In games played here in Boston, eight of the 11 games saw the opponent score under 90 points! The Celtics have played 40-14 to the UNDER when facing an opponent off of scoring 100+ points in their last game. We like the Celtics and the UNDER in game one.
Game: Los Angeles Lakers at Boston (9:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on First Half UNDER 96 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
We think game one is going to be all about defense. The teams will be feeling each other out in game one, especially in the first-half. Boston will be laser-focused on defense, as they have been all year long. The Lakers are 64-42 UNDER in the first-half as an underdog the past three seasons. Games between two top-level teams with first-half totals in this range featuring a team playing just four games in the last 10 days (Lakers) have produced first-half UNDERs at the alarming rate of 88-33 or 78% of the time. We will ride the defensive signature that Boston has branded at home, and play the first-half UNDER as well.
Results: 2-1
NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-30-2008
Last game was a shootout, especially for these two teams. We expect a big reversal here in game six. Boston goes for the close-out while Detroit looks to avoid elimination. Paul Pierce said, &quo...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-29-2008
The Spurs have played seven consecutive UNDERs in the playoffs and now with their backs to the walls, they know the only way they can come out of this one in the win column is to match the intens...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-28-2008
We have already watched three of the first four games in this series go UNDER and with the series tied at two games apiece, these teams both know that the game will be won in the h...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-27-2008
A quick glance at the 2008 playoffs, especially after round one, shows that the home teams have truly dominated. The Spurs have been as good as ever on their home floor as they have amassed a 7-0...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-26-2008
Boston finally got their first road win in the playoffs, reclaiming homecourt advantage and taking a 2-1 lead going into game four. They clamped down on defense holding Detroit to 38% from the floor, ...
