Free Picks Nba - June 04, 2009

We enter The Finals up 28.1 units in the playoffs and +120 units over the past six months. I have three picks in game one of the Finals, going for the rare trifecta. While two of the picks may appear to conflict, they do not. We have a six-point cushion on the spread here. If the Lakers blow out Orlando we lose one bet and win another and it comes down to the play on the total. If the Magic win the game outright, same situation. So there is no nightmare scenario here where we can lose all bets but we can will all three if the Lakers win a close game, which would make for a huge day.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
MLB	20-16 last 36 picks	56%	+$340
NBA	292-232 last 524 picks	56%	+$12020
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
NHL	16-6 last 22 picks	73%	+$2920
TOTAL			+$22600

 

Today's NBA Basketball Picks:

Game: Orlando at Los Angeles Lakers (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Orlando +6 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 206 -110 (risk 5 to win 4.6)

The Magic did the unthinkable in beating the Cavs, the top team in the league all season and nearly unbeatable at home, in six games. In that series the Magic had many mismatch advantages and to their credit, they took advantage of it. We called a series win for Orlando (and banked at +250 on that) after game one after seeing the mis-matches and noting that the Magic have been atop my NBA power rankings for a while now. While they won't have the mismatches in this series, they have the skillset and confidence to stay close with LA in game one. The Lakers play best when their backs are against the wall. When the pressure is off, they tend to leave their "A" game in the locker room. They lost to Houston at home in game one of the second round and followed that up with an ATS loss to Denver in game one at home (a game they really should have lost straight-up). The Lakers put together back-to-back excellent games vs. Denver to close them out but prior to that, this team had really underperformed in the playoffs. Can they win this game by more than three baskets? I don't think they do. While they don't have the matchup advantages they did vs. Cleveland, this Magic team still won both games vs. the Lakers twice in the regular season so we know they are not, at a minimum, at a big matchup disadvantage. Orlando is now 31-18 ATS this season vs. winning teams. That includes a 25-10 ATS mark vs. the elite teams that outscore opponents by 3+ points per game. They are also 16-4 ATS on the road this season vs. teams that average 103+ points per game. They are 14-6 ATS this season vs. up-tempo teams like the Lakers (those averaging 83+ shots per game) and 18-7 ATS as as an underdog. Evidence of the Laker's propensity to underperform when the pressure is off? They are just 7-18 ATS this season at home after having won three of their last four games. Orlando should keep this one close enough to cover. I also like the UNDER in this game. This will be the first time an NBA Championship series has seen a total of 200 or higher since 1995! That's 14 years folks. It certainly speaks of value on the UNDER, especially when you consider that game one of the Finals has gone UNDER the total in five consecutive years (as teams shake off a little rust and battle nerves). Magic playoff games have averaged 192 points per game (3 points under their regular season average). Lakers playoff games have averaged 199 points per game (six points under their regular season average). So we have 192 and 199 and this total is set at 206? The Lakers have now gone 27-9 UNDER in their last 36 games as a favorite while the Magic enter this one having gone UNDER to the tune of 52-24 in their last 76 games after scoring 100+ in their previous game. Orlando is 30-15 UNDER this season vs. teams that average triple digits including 11-3 UNDER vs. teams that average 103+ points per game! They are also 10-1 UNDER this season after scoring 100+ points in three straight games. Orlando plus the points and the UNDER here.

The Magic's amazing win over LeBron and the Cavs has led to public support as they now see this Magic team capable of beating the Lakers. While I think Orlando has done amazing things this season, and won't go down easily, I don't think they have what it takes to beat the Lakers outright in this game. They don't have the mismatches to work on in this one like they did against the Cavs. Los Angeles has size to keep Rashard Lewis and Turkoglu more in check. They also have the quickness to negate fast break opportunities. Many will point to the Magic winning the two games vs the Lakers during the regular season as a reason to think that Orlando can win this game outright. The fact is that prior in-season games has not been a good standard to judge a playoff series. Dating back to 1995 in the Championship round, there have been five times when a team swept their opponent during the regular season. Those five teams went 1-4 to win the series. That one winning team was Boston last year and the Celtics were the only team with a 10+ point scoring margin on the season. Orlando is good but they aren't as good as Boston last year. The other four teams that didn't own a 10+ point scoring margin on the regular season lost all four times, got swept twice, and had a 4-16 straight-up record in the four series. Los Angeles can let up at times and covering the spread in this game is tough task. But, they are motivated and talented enough to find a way to win the game straight-up. Let's not foret that despite having a losing record ATS at home this season, the Lakers are 44-7 straight-up at home. Meanwhile, Orlando has lost 19 road games. The Lakers are 27-5 this season in games with a total set in the 200 range. Over the past two seasons, when rested (having played just once over the past seven days), LA is 20-2 straight up! Even at this line, there's value on Los Angeles on the moneyline to win game one.

Results: 2-1

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Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-30-2009
The Cavs rolled through their first eight playoff games, with eight straight double-digit wins. I don't think too many thought they would be down in this series three games to two facing eliminati...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-29-2009
The Lakers took control of the series as expected by winning game five in Los Angeles. The Nuggets are now in a must-win situation and will have to lay it all on the line in this one. Lucky for them t...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-27-2009
The Nuggets and the Lakers have exchanged blows in this series so far, resulting in a 2-2 deadlock through four games. The fact is, these teams are very close and any of these games can go either way....

NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-26-2009
The Magic would be leading in this series three games to none if not for a miracle game-winning three-pointer by LeBron James in game two. It's evident that the Cavaliers have a dilemma in this se...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-May-25-2009
This series has been a very close one with either team capable of owning a 3-0 lead. It's been a statistical dead hea with both teams shooting 44% from the field and 76% from the line. The benches...