We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Phoenix at Atlanta (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Atlanta +9

Phoenix is phenomenal. They are 42-13 on the year including 21-7 at home! They have a winning ATS mark on the road and overall. So, laying 9 on the road is justified, right? Well maybe not. Let's not forget this team gives up 103.3 points per game. On the road, it climbs to 105.3 and over their past five games, it's up to 106.4. If there's anyone they let down against, it's bad teams like the Hawks. As good as Phoenix is, they are just 10-28 ATS the past three seasons vs. weak teams (40% or worse SU record). In their last six games laying this kind of number (9 or more points), they are 0-6 ATS. Meanwhile, in second-half play, the Hawks are 16-6 ATS vs. winning teams over the past two seasons. Phoenix is ripe for a let down as they are off two blowout wins by 10 over Boston and 12 over Minnesota. The Suns are just 28-48 ATS in coming off back-to-back double digit wins. Just too many points here.

These two teams played to 212 points five days ago. But this one should be lower scoring than that. Washington shot 51% from the field and hit 80% from the charity stripe. Minnesota hit 85% from the free-throw line. Together the teams made an unreal 59 free throws. The reality is that over their last five games, Washington games have averaged 193 ppg (versus season average 211). Minnesota has been an OVER team at home but the Wizards are 8-1 UNDER on the road after a loss. Take the UNDER here.

Miami has found a scoring rhythm having topped triple-digits in four straight games. In two of those, they played very good defense (85 ppg) and in the other two, they gave up 112 ppg. So what happens here? The linesmakers expect a low-scoring affair but we think this one goes over the low total. Miami tends to get lulled into higher-scoring affairs after a non-conference game (18-8 OVER this year following non-conference game). Given that 14 of the last 19 games between these clubs played here in Miami have gone UNDER, we see a total posted too low (and we get value on the other side). Recent totals in games between these two teams: 192.5, 194.5, 194, 198, 198.5, 196.5. This one is set about ten points lower than the average of those. We'll go contrarian here, avoid the obvious play, and take the OVER.

New York has gone UNDER in three straight games and in seven of their last ten. New Jersey has been going OVER but they have been playing to lines lower than this including 8 of their last 11 being posted at under 190 points. New York is 5-3 UNDER in division games while New Jersey also plays in lower-scoring games in-division. We think this total is too high and we'll go UNDER.

Three of the last four games between these clubs has gone UNDER including the last two played here at Indiana. Last year they played here and scored just 191 total points. Both teams have been scoring a lot and playing little defense of late. But, that includes a few wild games that have driven up the averages (like Indiana's 265 point game vs. Milwaukee). The reality is that Indiana has scored under 100 points in eight of their last fourteen games. Sacramento has scored under 100 twice in their last four. In close games (favored by 6 or less), Indiana is 11-3 UNDER at home this season. They'll bring the defense here and we expect this to go UNDER.