Free Nba Expert Pick - February 23, 2009

We split our picks last night to come out ahead about one unit. Our NBA picks are now hitting 57%, 174-129 for +99.2 units. Today we look to increase those numbers with three premium plays...

Today's NBA Basketball Picks:

Game: Indiana at New York Knicks (7:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Knicks -275 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.1)

The Knicks are getting comfortable with the Mike D'Antoni high-octane offense as they have scored 100+ in each of their last 16 games. That has translated well for them as they are 12-4 ATS in those 16 games. It has also done them well at home as they are 8-2 SU when they score 100+ against a losing team at home. The Pacers still remain the only team to beat the big four in Boston, LA Lakers, Orlando, and Cleveland. What they have done is play either up to or down to the level of competition as they are just 4-8 SU on the road against teams with losing records on the season. I will back the Knicks here on the moneyline.

The Jazz are now 63-10 in their last 73 games at home. Their last 19 home games have seen them go 16-3, but the three losses were to Orlando, San Antonio, and Cleveland - all teams with very high winning percentages. All three of those teams also carry exceptional road records - a combined 56-28 on the season. Atlanta is a much improved team, but they still have not shown the ability to win big games on the road. They opened the season by going 6-0, but since then they have had a lot of problems against the top NBA teams when facing them on the road. They have logged just two road wins against winning teams since November 3, one over Detroit, who is struggling, and the other came against Miami. They have not beaten a team with better than a .527 winning percentage, and I don't think it happens here. I'll take Utah on the moneyline.

Boston has been the top team over much of the last two years, but without Kevin Garnett in the lineup, it is hard to see them favored against a Nuggets’ team that is 20-6 at home on the season and 8-2 in their last 10 at home against teams with a winning record. Boston has a short bench without Garnett and they are also coming off a game last night that was up-and-down the court against Phoenix. Three of their losses on the season have come when playing back-to-back nights. Couple that with Boston’s shorter bench in this one, and I like the Nuggets to get the win at home.

Results: 2-1

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Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NBA-Basketball-Picks-February-22-2009
The Celtics are without KG and the Suns are on fire. Phoenix has put up 140+ in all three games since the coaching change. Unfortunately for Phoenix it looks like they will be without Amare Stoudemire...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-February-21-2009
Dirk Nowitski scored nine points last night against Houston. It was just the second time he has scored under 10 this year. The first was all the way back in game three against the Cavaliers. He follow...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-February-20-2009
Charlotte is a well-distinguished team. They have one trait that teams with losing records don't usually possess. They play defense. The Bobcats are No. 4 in the NBA in fewest points allowed, the ...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-February-19-2009
This game is always a bruising, physical affair. They met earlier in the season at San Antonio and produced their typical ugly game. The final tally in that one was 166 points. It has been the theme b...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-February-18-2009
The Grizzlies went through a dreadful 2-20 run, but have regrouped and the young talent is beginning to gel. The 22 game stretch featured 14 where the Grizzlies lost by 10+. Things have been different...