Nba Predictions - April 30, 2010

We nailed both of our premium NBA picks last night to boost us to 30-17 for 64% and +35 units over the last week and a half. Today we go with an unprecedented four 5-unit picks!

WUNDERDOG 2010 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	46-29 last 75 picks	61%	+$4060
CFB	25-10 last 35 picks	71%	+$6040
MLB	265-219 last 484 picks	55%	+$8370
NBA	70-49 last 119 picks	59%	+$4740
NHL	350-258 last 608 picks	58%	+$17350
WNBA	121-90 last 211 picks	57%	+$5490
TOTAL			+$46050

Today's NBA Basketball Picks:

Game: Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City (9:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Oklahoma City -120 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 4.2)

The Lakers have had all sorts of issues playing here this season. They have played four games, averaging just 87.5 points per game, discounting overtime, and have lost three by a combined margin of 42 points, or 14 per game. It took shooting over 52% to win here in OT, early in the season, and the Thunder is better now. The Lakers are a very inconsistent 1-10 ATS after an ATS win, and Thunder is rolling as a small chalk at 14-3 last 17 at 4.5 or less. I’m on the Thunder on the moneyline here.

The Oklahoma City Thunder may be on the brink of elimination down three games to two, but they are far from done. The Lakers are a very good offensive team, but they have yet to solve the Thunder’s defense on the road. The two games in this series at Oklahoma, has seen the Lakers limited to 92.5 points per game. The last regular season saw them connect for just 75, and the other meeting here this year the Lakers scored just 90 before overtime. Overall, the four games show just 87.5 ppg. It took the Lakers shooting over 52% to win the one of four games played here this season and that one took overtime. The Lakers have lacked consistency of late, standing at 1-10 ATS after an ATS win in their last 11. The Thunder is now 14-3 ATS in their last 17 as a favorite of 4.5 or less. I'll go with Oklahoma City here.

Looking at this game and finding value is all about probabilities. Denver certainly isn't a defensive-minded team, and Utah has taken advantage of that to average over 110 points per game through the first five played. That is a huge marker for this one as the Jazz, who have won as many home games as any team in the NBA over the past three seasons, truly are unbeatable when they get to the 110 they have averaged in this series. The Jazz, this season, are a perfect 20-0 straight-up when they reach 110 points. On the flip side, outside of really one good season last year, the Nuggets have been one of the league's worst teams playing on the road vs. good competition. Denver is on a 28-112 straight-up run (that's 20%) on the road vs. teams that outscore their competition by 3+ per game. Utah closes things out tonight.

The Utah Jazz have had no problems scoring in this series as they have averaged over 110 points per game. That is a key marker for game six as the Utah Jazz have been virtually unstoppable when they reach that 110 mark at home, as they are 20-0 straight-up and a sizzling 18-1-1 ATS. The Nuggets were covering everything in sight last season, but are just 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21. Jazz 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 as a favorite. Denver is a horrible 2-10 ATS this season on the road when playing a very good team (.600 to .700). The Nuggets desperately miss George Karl and that will catch up with them here. Utah is 17-4 ATS this season off a road loss including 9-1 if that loss was by double-digits. Utah is the better team right now and they close out this series tonight with a win and cover.

Results: 2-2

NBA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Check out basketball ratings here.
• Check out our updated NBA sportsbooks.
• Check out our updated basketball Game-of-Day Analysis.
• Don't forget to visit our basketball prior predictions .
• Don't forget to read our 2009 season basketball handicapping preview here.
• Hop over to our NBA picks blog here.
• Don't forget to read our 2009 NBA basketball prior pick season results here.
• Take a look at our free basketball picks here.
• View our updated NBA basketball spreads.
• View our updated NBA ATS standings.

Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-29-2010
The Mavericks went on a 13-game winning streak, but the team has struggled vs. good teams since. Dallas has posted a losing record of 5-7 in their last 12, and 1-3 on the road. The San Antonio Spurs a...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-28-2010
The Utah Jazz have won the last three in this series and look to close out the Nuggets on the road. The Jazz have played well down the stretch and, in this series, their offense is playing at a higher...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-27-2010
The Celtics have a commanding 3-1 lead, and it is very important for them to close the door here tonight. The Celtics have some aging star players, and getting this done in five games would buy more t...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-26-2010
Sometimes in a best of seven series, the hardest game to get is the last one. The Bobcats have their backs against the wall, and will not bow out in four straight without their "A" game toni...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-25-2010
This series appeared to open up in game three, but that was not really the case. The Heat shot over 50%, the Celtis 48% and the two combined to shoot 80% from the free throw line. I would expect, with...