We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Cleveland at Washington (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cleveland -6

It appears Washington has hung close in a couple of games here, but they really haven't. They won the 4th quarter in game two, but they were down 12, and the game was not in danger for the Cavs. They won the 3rd quarter in game three, but they were down 17. Those were the only quarters they have won in the entire series! This tells us that the Cavs are not only up 3-0, but in full control. Washington didn't begin to struggle when they lost Arenas, and Butler. They already were struggling. They played way over their heads and started 17-3 at home. They have lost 13 straight vs. playoff teams and went 2-19 overall vs. these teams. They were 4-16-1 ATS vs. playoff teams at home. Cleveland wants to close this out, and we look for them to come out strong and take the fight out of the Wizards yet again.

Houston has been one of the top defensive teams at home over the past few years, and this is a pivital game five. That usually spells defense in the NBA playoffs, and that has been the trend this entire series, as neither team has shot well from the floor or from beyond the arc. When you see a couple games in a series play to scores under 160, there is no doubt where the emphasis lies, and history has proven it to be true. When there is a game in the opening round in the NBA that totals 160 or less, all subsequent games go under 70% of the time for the rest of the series. When there is a second game that does also, that percentage climbs to 79%. This game won't be won or lost behind the 3-pt line, it will be won by the team that plays the best without the ball, and we like the under here. This game is a toss-up to us, and that makes the points look good for Utah. Utah is averaging just 41.2% from the floor, but Houston has only shot over 40% in one game, and stands at a woeful 37.7% on the series. The true difference is Houston, a 75% FT shooting team has hit 86% in their two wins, while Utah, also a 75% FT shooting team, has shot 65% in their two losses. That difference has equated to 5 points per game, and is the margin of Houston covering, or not covering. We think that margin settles out tonight in Utah's favor, or at least even. That favors the team getting six points. Houston is just 10-23 ATS at home vs. winning teams and 9-19 ATS at home after scoring 85 points or less the past two seasons. When scoring 85 or less in back-to-back games, they are just 1-11 ATS the past three seasons! We'll take the points here and the UNDER.