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Free Nba Pick - April 29, 2009We went 2-1 last night on the NBA hardwood. Over the past four weeks our NBA picks are 42-31 (58%) for +29.1 units. Today we have three premium NBA picks including two 4-unit selections.
 Today's NBA Basketball Picks: The Denver Nuggets played a perfect game against the Hornets, while the Hornets put on one of their worst exhibitions in the history of the NBA. The end result a ridiculous 58-point Denver win. That tied for the largest margin of victory in NBA playoff history, a record that was set all the way back in 1956. Denver coach George Karl commented that the effort and execution of his team was the best he had seen in his two decades of coaching. So what happens from here? The first place to look is in games one and two. In those games in Denver, the Nuggets were installed as a 6.5 favorite for each game. Suddenly, after the explosion last game, the line has reached double-digits, with the public loading up on Denver. That spells immediate value on the Hornets, just by the line alone which has jumped 4.5 points from what was deemed a fair line in games one and two. It is the reaction to game four, and the expected public wagering frenzy on Denver. The fact is, teams that lost a playoff game by huge margins, cover the spread at an alarmingly high rate the next game. We've made a lot thus far this postseason playing this trend. I expect the Nuggets to come out soft here, off of their huge performance, and the Hornets to be buzzing with their calling card which is defense. New Orleans has shown very little heart in this series which scares me a little. But, I have to expect them to come out hard after getting their manhood cut off like that last game. If they don't, they all deserve to be fired or traded. I'm on the Hornets here. I also like this game to go UNDER in the first half. The combination of the Hornets resolve for game five, with the complacency of the Nuggets, will lead to a defensive first half here. New Orleans is 26-15 UNDER in the first half on the road this season. They are also 25-15 UNDER in the first half when the line is between 95 and 100. In addition, the Hornets are 20-10 UNDER in the first half this season when revenging a loss as they come out playing hard defense. They are also 16-6 UNDER the past two seasons coming off a game in which they scored 85 or less points. Finally, New Orleans is 13-5 UNDER this season in the first half when facing an opponent that averages 103+ points per game. Hornets and the first-half UNDER here.Game: New Orleans at Denver (10:35 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 units on New Orleans +590 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 11.8) I wrote up in my game choice here on why I like the Hornets here. I also like them on the moneyline in this one, despite the really long odds. How can I back a team that lost by 58 to win their next game against the same team? It has to do with pride. Teams off a loss like that usually respond big because they are human. They have their pride and egos challenged, and come back in the next game to win over half the time. We've banked on this several times already this season, winning with moneyline underdogs. Those were smaller dogs than this, but history tells us that even a double-digit dog can win in this situation. The last 58-point loser (St. Louis back in 1956) came back and won the next game straight up! The Hornets are 8-1 straight-up this year after a game in which they allowed 55%+ shooting. They are also 17-5 this year after having lost ATS in two straight games. Long odds here for sure. But, great value on the Hornets on the moneyline here. Results: 1-2 NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters: NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-28-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-27-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-26-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-25-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-24-2009 |
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