We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Phoenix at Los Angeles Lakers (3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Los Angeles Lakers +6

In game three, Kobe did what Kobe does and it worked. His 45 points led to an upset victory. It wasn't just Kobe as Lamar Odom and Kwame Brown also came up very strong. The fact that they came back from a 14-31 deficit said a lot. They aren't ready to give up yet. Now we get even more points than we did last game on the Lakers, again at home. The Lakers, in this building, can keep up with Phoenix. While the Suns scored 110 per game this season, LA scored 106 per game here. And, they allowed 103 per game vs. 106 per game for Phoenix on the road. The reality is that at home, the Lakers are as good a team as Phoenix - and we are getting 6 points on a team that has new life and confidence after winning game three. Phoenix doesn't like playing teams like them. They are just 6-15 ATS since the All-Star break vs. teams that allow 99+ points per game. We'll take the generous points here.

Jason Kidd put on a clinic in game three collecting 16 points, 16 rebounds and 19 assists as the Nets dismantled Toronto, winning by 13. Toronto is in deep trouble and in need of a win. But, it's going to be tough to get that here. The Raptors are were just 17-25 on the road this year where their defense was very suspect (100 ppg). They have scored just 89.7 ppg so far in the playoffs. The Raptors just aren't playing well right now. They are 0-8 ATS this season on the road after having lost two of their last three games. The Nets are 20-11 ATS this season when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points and 10-2 ATS after covering the spread in four of their last five games. They are also 16-5 ATS the past three seasons at home after holding opponents to 90 points or less in back-to-back games.

Whoa Nelly! What's going on here. The #8 seed is kicking the snot out of the #1 seed. The Warriors are taking care of business with the kind of swagger usually reserved for top seeded teams. Dallas is the better team but Golden State is just a team against which the Mavs have problems. They don't like the style or the matchups and have lost 4 of 5 games to this team this year. Dallas has to be in panic-mode to some extent. Most teams that had won 67 games wouldn't be panicking right now. They would have confidence. But for Dallas it's different. They can't beat this team! And, they remember last year's Finals debacle in which they were supposed to win but lost after a 2-0 series lead. They know, in the back of their minds, that they are very capable of losing this series. It's got to be a scary thought for them. Sure, they will come out tonight with everything they have. But if things don't go right for them (as they haven't every time they face the Warriors so far), they might crumble. Meanwhile, Golden State will also come out with fire. They know that their best chance of pulling off the most stunning series upset in NBA PLayoffs history is to win this game at home. So both teams will be playing with motivation, but Golden State is looser and has more confidence and the backing of their home crowd. The Warriors are benefitting from the veteren leadership of Don Nelson. With Nelly at the helm, they are 9-1 ATS this season at home vs. top-level teams (70%+ SU record). He is also 15-3 ATS as an underdog off a 15+ point win in his coaching career. And get this: Dallas is just 1-8 ATS this season on the road vs. terrible defensive teams (those allowing 103+ ppg). It just goes to show, Dallas doesn't really know how to play a team like Golden State. We'll take the home team and the points here as until Dallas shows they can beat this team convincingly, the value is on the Warriors.