NBA Basketball
Premium Edition |
April 28, 2006 |
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darrell,
We had a great day yesterday at 7-2 overall including 2-1 in the NBA. It looked like a 3-0 night with the OVER in Chicago/Miami looking very good until the last few minutes when scoring halted to a screetch. We ended up missing that total by one point but got the W with Indiana and Denver. We also swept the board in NHL including the big 5-star winner and went 2-1 in baseball. Tonight I have 3 NBA, one MLB and one NHL pick.
My NBA Power Rankings are updated weekly and can be found here.
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Good luck , darrell!

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Game: Cleveland at Washington (8:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 stars on Cleveland +3 Pick: 2 stars on UNDER 194.5
I don't pick the side and total on the same game very often, yet this time I beleive the situation calls for two plays in the same game. I like the Cleveland to cover the spread if not win straight up after their home loss to the Wizards. They are the better team and their "need" to win is back after dropping game 2. I also like the game to go under as the statistical trends clearly point to the under. Keep in mind that the Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS after a straight up loss, and they understand that if they do not win this game, they face an elimination game at Washington. In what should be a close game, getting the 3 is a bonus. The Cavs are 8-1 on the under as a road dog. The last 5 meetings between these teams have gone under as well. Playoff games featuring a home team off a low scoring game facing an opponent off a loss are very good UNDER plays. Cleveland is 23-13 UNDER in games with a posted total between 190 and 199.5 points this season and 22-10 UNDER following a loss as they turn to defense in those games. In game one, 173 points were scored. In game two it was 193. Defense has ruled the day and I expect the same today. Cavs and under here.
Game: San Antonio at Sacremento (10:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 stars on Sacremento +2
Much like the Nuggets and Bulls yesterday, the Sacremento Kings face the near-guaranteed elimination if they lose this game. Returning home with this motivation is strong. Especially considering that the 2-0 team can't be as motivated as they were earlier. It's almost as if these 2-0 road teams are expecting to lose game 3. The Kings had one of the longest winning streaks this year on home court and are 15-5 ATS at home. Sacramento is not new to beating the Spurs. When their back was to the wall in a must win road game at San Antonio they came through earlier this year. They now face a similiar situation and combine that with the fact that the Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss, 3-0 ATS as a home underdog and the Spurs are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams, let's take the Kings tonight in a must win in front of their home crowd. Off the confidence-building near-win without Artest last game, I expect Sacramento to come out pumped up, confident and motivated. Kings to rebound here.
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| How
much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every
star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick
= 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management. |
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