Basketball Pick - April 27, 2009
We split 'em yesterday to come out ahead. We carry our five-month NBA run of 258-208 (+88.5 units) into tonight's action with a trio of NBA premium picks.
| WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet) |
| SPORT | WINS-LOSSES | % | NET |
| MLB |
29-24 Season-to-Date |
55% | +$1010 |
| NBA |
258-208 last 466 picks |
55% | +$8850 |
| NFL |
72-44 last 116 picks |
62% | +$7320 |
| NHL |
32-31 last 63 picks |
51% | +$750 |
| TOTAL | | | +$17930 |
Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Atlanta at Miami (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Atlanta +4.5 (+100) (risk 4 to win 4)
This has been a strange series through the first three games. Atlanta made a game one statement by blowing out the Heat by 26 points, only to come back on their home court and lose by 15. Then coming to Miami for game three, the Hawks got taken behind the wood shed in a 29-point loss. Inn game two, we saw Miami come out steaming and focused after getting beat down by 26 points. They won the next game outright and this is not such a rare occurance in the NBA playoffs. Certain teams off a big losses have had marked success coming back in the next game and winning. Miami basically threw a perfect game at them in game three as they were a perfect 19-19 from the free throw line, and hit over 50% from behind the arc. I look for Atlanta to regroup here and do what teams off of these big losses have historically done in the playoffs over the years, and that is to come back with a high level of intensity to erase the humiliating loss. Miami is just 34-48 ATS at home and and 12-24 ATS off a home win the past two seasons. They are also 14-25 ATS at home vs. winning teams dating back to last season. Meanwhile, Atlanta is 12-4 ATS revenging a double-digit road loss this season. I like a motivated Hawks team to play hard and get the cover here.
Game: Atlanta at Miami (8:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Atlanta +180 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 3.6)
I like Atlanta's chances here of pulling off the upset win. I made the statements about the history of teams coming off a huge loss in the playoffs. These same teams have not only come out with fire and gotten covers, but they have come out with fire and nailed the straight-up win over 62% of time in the process over the past four years! The moneyline is chock full of value as we have a dog here that has systematically covered over half the time, getting almost 2-to-1 odds. In addition, Miami is a horrible 15-51 straight-up vs. winning teams over the past two seasons. This season the Heat are 3-14 straight up after a double-digit win! I'll take Atlanta straight-up here too.
Game: Denver at New Orleans (8:35 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 194 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Denver Nuggets have not been the same scoring team on the road as at home, especially when facing good defensive opponents. Against the top 10 defensive teams in the NBA in points allowed, they have been held to 11 points per game below their average against them on the road. The Nuggets are 26-16 UNDER this season when facing a winning opponent. The New Orleans Hornets have been equally good stopping top offensive teams from scoring as they have held the top 10 NBA offenses in points scored to 10 points below their average when playing them at home. New Orleans is 25-16 UNDER when facing a winning opponent this season. In home games vs. teams that average 100+ ppg, the Hornets are 14-5 UNDER this season. that includes a 9-1 UNDER mark vs. teams that average 103+ ppg! This is a pivotal game in the series, and Denver has been 20-6 to the UNDER in their last Conference Quarterfinal playoff games and overall, they are now 17-4 to the UNDER as a dog. The Hornets have now played 15-7 to the UNDER in their last 22 overall. I like this one to go UNDER the total.
NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-26-2009
After many left them for dead after their game one upset loss, Boston has come roaring back to take homecourt advantage back. It hasn't been KG whose on the bench. It hasn't been Pierce or All...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-25-2009
The Denver Nuggets won the first two played in Denver going away, to go up 2-0 in the series. The Nuggets are a different team on the road however, as their now 35-8 mark at home, turns to 21-20 on th...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-24-2009
The Cleveland Cavaliers have blown through their home schedule and destroyed everyone, to the tune of a double-digit winning margin. They have been successful on the road, but against the teams in thi...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-23-2009
The Dallas Mavericks accomplished what they set out to do and that was to steal a game in San Antonio. They negated the home-court advantage with the win, and come home with a chance to close out the ...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-22-2009
The Orlando Magic have to be chapped at what they did in game one at home, as they allowed an 18-point lead to evaporate and ended up on the losing end. You know the resolve will be much greater in th...
