Basketball Betting Pick - April 26, 2009

We went 2-3 last night. Today we go with four picks.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
MLB	25-23 Season-to-Date	52%	+$110
NBA	256-206 last 462 picks	55%	+$8800
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
NHL	31-31 last 62 picks	50%	+$540
TOTAL			+$16770

Today's NBA Basketball Picks:

Game: Boston at Chicago (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 100 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

After many left them for dead after their game one upset loss, Boston has come roaring back to take homecourt advantage back. It hasn't been KG whose on the bench. It hasn't been Pierce or Allen either. It's been Rajon Rondo who is doing his best to change "The Big 3" to "The Big 4." On a bum ankle, all he's doing is averaging 23 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists per game in the series. The Boston defense showed up for the first time all series last game. Two of the three games between these clubs have gone UNDER in the first-half, including game one that ended with 208 points. As an underdog this season Boston is 25-11 UNDER in the first-half. They are also 25-11 UNDER in the first half vs. teams that average 100+ ppg. The Celtics are also 27-15 to the UNDER in the first half. That includes an 11-2 UNDER mark following a big 15+ point win and 9-1 UNDER when the total is between 100 and 105 points! I like this one to stay in single-digits in the first-half.

Am I crazy? Maybe. But I'm taking a shot here. Cleveland has absolutely dominated the Pistons in the first three games, winning by an average of 14 points per game. LeBron has been unstoppable, averaging 32 points per game. The betting public has cashed in on their bets on Cleveland three straight times. So what happens? The line gets juiced beyond reason. In game three, Detroit was paying +175 on the  moneyline. This game, with the same players on the same floor, has a line of over double that! Are they really over twice as likely to lose this game? I in fact think the Pistons have a BETTER chance of winning this than winning game three. This is their last hurrah. This is their last chance to let any pride show through. This same team was down 1-2 going into game four last year and won. Head coach Michael Curry noted that saying "I fully believe that we're going to take care of home court and win." Granted, this is a very tall order. But if there's a time for a letdown by the Cavs, this is it, given how easy it's been thus far. This season and last, this Cavs team is just 5-11 straight up on the road after holding an opponent to 80 points or less. Should Cleveland win here? Yes. But this line represents tremendous value and I think there's a chance that Detroit circles the wagons.

We nailed our ATS and moneyline picks on Philly in game three as they pulled off the upset. In that game, only 190 total points were scored, but in somewhat of a fluke, the first half accounted for 109 of them. In the first two games in the series, an average of 90.5 points were scored in the first half. I like this game to return to "normal" and go UNDER in the first-half. Philly is 23-16 UNDER in the first half at home this season. When seeking revenge the last two seasons, the Magic are 23-12 UNDER in the first-half as they bring the defense. Coming off a win this season, the Sixers are 26-16 UNDER in the first-half. Take the first-half UNDER here.

Let's face it. Portland is the higher seed but they aren't the better team. They have shown that by going up 2-1 and by answering Brandon Roy in game three. Roy lit the Rockets up for 42 points in game two as the Trailblazers evened the series with a 107-103 win. But in game three, Houston shut him and the rest of the Blazers down, holding them to 83 points. Now that they have the home court, they need to keep it with a win here. The fact that Houston stole one in Portland is the real surprise as both of these teams are extreme homers. Portland is 35-8 at home but just 20-22 on the road. Houston is 21-22 on the road but 34-8 at home. This game is in Houston and this Rockets team is VERY good here, especially on defense. They held opponents to just 90.9 per game here on the year. Over their last five games they are holding foes to 86.4 per game! They love playing games that are expected to be defensive battles as they are 19-9 ATS now this season when the total is in the 180s. I like the Rockets to take care of business and get the win and cover here.

Results: 2-2

NBA Basketball Picks Resources:

• View NBA prior picks here.
• Don't forget to read our 2008 basketball gambling preivew here.
• View our updated sportsbook reviews NBA.
• Check out NBA basketball Game-of-Day-Preview here.
• Read our 2008 NBA basketball prior picks results here.
• View our updated NBA basketball ratings.
• Hop over to our NBA free picks here.
• View NBA spreads here.
• Here we show our NBA ATS standings.
• Read our blog NBA picks here.

Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-25-2009
The Denver Nuggets won the first two played in Denver going away, to go up 2-0 in the series. The Nuggets are a different team on the road however, as their now 35-8 mark at home, turns to 21-20 on th...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-24-2009
The Cleveland Cavaliers have blown through their home schedule and destroyed everyone, to the tune of a double-digit winning margin. They have been successful on the road, but against the teams in thi...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-23-2009
The Dallas Mavericks accomplished what they set out to do and that was to steal a game in San Antonio. They negated the home-court advantage with the win, and come home with a chance to close out the ...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-22-2009
The Orlando Magic have to be chapped at what they did in game one at home, as they allowed an 18-point lead to evaporate and ended up on the losing end. You know the resolve will be much greater in th...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-21-2009
The Cleveland Cavaliers opened a big lead early and cruised over the hapless Pistons. This Pistons’ team is a far cry from what we have seen in the playoffs in years past. The Cavs are the real ...