Nba Basketball Pick - April 26, 2008
We hit last night with the Detroit-Philadelphia UNDER, bumping us to 9-6 (60%) for the playoffs for +4.5 units. Overall the past six weeks we are +33.5 units in the NBA. Today we have three plays.
Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Los Angeles Lakers at Denver (5:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Denver -1.5 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
This is a must win for the Nuggets who were manhandled in Los Angeles. Not all must-win games result in a win but we like Denver's chances here. This is a team that is night vs. day at home vs. on the road. We faded them in both games in Los Angeles because we knew they can't play good teams on the road. They are absolutely horrible in that situation. At home, it's another story. And, that combined with their obvious motivation here will get them a much needed win. Denver was just 17-26 on the road this season but at home they were 33-8! They averaged 113 per game here (vs. 107 on the road) and allowed 102.5 (vs. 112 on the road). The Lakers are 9-20 ATS the past couple of seasons after allowing 105+ points in two straight games. Denver is 24-12 ATS over that same span at home revenging a loss in which they gave up 100+ points. George Karl is 95-73 ATS in the favorite role with Denver and 32-20 ATS at home revenging a loss. Under Karl, the Nuggets are 13-3 ATS at home revenging two straight losses in which the team gave up triple figures. The Lakers are fat and happy and Denver is in dire need. And, at home, the Nuggets can play with the best of them. Denver for the win here.
Game: Boston at Atlanta (8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 188 -110 (risk 2 to win 1.8)
Boston has looked like the team with the best record in the NBA thus far, destroying Atlanta in back-to-back games. Defensive Player of the Year Kevin Garnett is on a mission and isn't letting up, even if this is only the first round vs. the Hawks. He's playing extremely hard and it's infectious. The Celtics defense is stifling Atlanta. Mike Bibby admitted as much when he said "We can't put the ball in the basket.They are making it tough for us on the strong side. We have to go back and watch film and see how they are playing us." Well Mike, if you didn't watch film prior to this series, or after game one, shame on you. Regardless, we don't think it's going to make much of a difference. Boston gave up just 90 ppg in the regular season and they have held Atlanta to just 79 per game thus far on 38.2% shooting. Because of their committment to defense, the Celtics are 46-36 UNDER overall this season including 24-15 UNDER vs. losing temas. They are also 17-8 UNDER after holding an opponent to 85 points or less. Atlanta is 7-0 UNDER vs. great defensive teams (those holding opponents 43% or less from the field). They are also 17-8 UNDER vs. teams that outscore their competition by 3+ ppg. We'll back the UNDER here as we see Boston again bringing a top-notch defensive effort and Atlanta again struggling to find the bottom of the net.
Game: Houston at Utah (10:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Game Total OVER 185.5 -110 (risk 2 to win 1.8)
Houston made a huge statement in game three handing the Jazz just their fifth home loss of the season. The return of Rafer Alston was the difference as T-Mac got some much needed offensive help. With that added option, Houston added 11 points to their average score from games one and two. Utah was simply off last game offensively. They managed just 92 points. That was a fluke. At home this season tehy averaged 108.6. Yes, Houston is a solid defensive team, but Utah is much better than that. We expect Utah's offense to have much more success tonight and push this game OVER this low number. Over the past three seasons Houston is 14-4 OVER following three straight games where both teams scored 95 or less. All three of the first games were low-scoring battles and it seems the UNDER is the play. But, we think this game will be different and we like the OVER.
NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-25-2008
This has been a see-saw thus far with Detroit getting embarrassed in a game one upset loss only to win game two by 17 points. They doubled the Sixers' leading scorer Iguodala holding him to 4 poin...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-24-2008
Stick a fork in the Rockets. Yes, oftentimes prognosticators overreact to the first two games and pronounce the loser done, only to see them come back and make it a series. This is not one of tho...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-23-2008
The Pistons were shocked in game one as nearly a double-digit favorite and that spells trouble here for the Sixers. The Pistons were definitely stung by that loss and now realize they took the game to...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-22-2008
Much as we saw the better team prevail in two straight home games in the Cleveland-Washington series, we see the Hornets prevailing yet again tonight in game two. They are just better than Dallas. Whi...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-21-2008
Think DeShawn Stevenson is regretting his comment that LeBron was "overrated"? Think Gilbert Arenas is regretting saying that Washington "wanted Cleveland in the first round"? Whil...
