|
Free Basketball Pick - April 25, 2009Last night we posted another winning day hitting with our 5-unit selection on Philadelphia ATS (+3.5) as well as Philly on the moneyline as a +150 dog! Today we roll out five NBA Playoffs picks!  Today's NBA Basketball Picks: The Denver Nuggets won the first two played in Denver going away, to go up 2-0 in the series. The Nuggets are a different team on the road however, as their now 35-8 mark at home, turns to 21-20 on the road. New Orleans defense translates much better at home as they have held teams ranked in the top 10 offensively in points scored, to 10 points below their average. While Denver is 15-1 at home in their last 16, they are also 5-8 on the road over the same period. The Nuggets history in the playoffs has also seen them go 3-13 ATS as an underdog. The Hornets are 17-8 ATS as a favorite of 4.5 or less, and are on a playoff run that has seen them go 8-1 ATS in their last nine as a favorite of 4.5 or less. I'll go with the Hornets in this one. I also like this one to go under the total. I mentioned the Hornets allowing top 10 offenses to 10 points below their average. Those teams have resulted in 192 points per game in total points. The Nuggets averaged 104.3 ppg during the season, but those numbers sunk considerably on the road. When against teams in the top 10 in the NBA in points allowed, they managed just 93 ppg, more than 11 points a game below their average. The total points scored vs. these top defensive opponents were just 188. The games in Denver scored high, but the Hornets at home and the Nuggets on the road will bring a much different game, and I will play this one to finish UNDER the total.Game: Denver at New Orleans (1:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 99 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7) There is a contrast between these teams’ styles at home and on the road. Particularly in the situation that applies here as we have a top 10 offense against a top 10 defense. This should be a statement game for the Hornets, and their best statement can be made on the defensive end, where I expect them to come out playing very intensely. There is also a situation that is live for this game that shows when the total is in this range, a team off a 10+ point win that is well rested (five games or less in 14 days), has shown the first half to go UNDER to the tune of 46-17. That is 73% of the time. As a result, I will play the first-half UNDER.Game: Atlanta at Miami (6:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Atlanta +4 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) The Atlanta Hawks split the two games with Miami in Atlanta, as the series moves to Miami for game three. The Hawks met with Miami four times during the regular season, and won three of the games including a 14-point win in Miami, so they certainly have to come into this one confident. The Heat did a great job at home this season. But when they faced teams with a better than .500 record, they struggled on their own court. They finished the regular season with a losing record, and eight of the home losses were by seven points or more, so they certainly are vulnerable here. The Heat’s home-favorite record has translated to 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53, so even though they are 28-13 at home on the season, they haven’t done a good job against the better teams. I'll go with Atlanta here.Game: Los Angeles Lakers at Utah (9:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Utah +4.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) There is one reason and one reason only why the Jazz are in the playoffs. It is their home-court advantage, and it isn't a novelty, it is something that they have enjoyed all the way back to 1990. The Jazz have gone 70-12 at home the last two years and 32-50 on the road. The playoffs have mirrored those results going 5-2 at home, and 2-6 on the road. Among those five wins in the last two years are three against this Lakers’ team, as well as a regular season win this year, and last season as well. The Jazz have enjoyed a 69-22 record at home in the playoffs since 1990, so to be getting points in this one, certainly shows a lot of value, especially when you factor in the success they have had in this building vs. the Lakers. Remember last year, they were blown out by 10+ in the first two games in LA, and came home and won the next two. I don't expect anything short of that this year, so Utah gets the call here. Results: 2-3 NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters: NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-24-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-23-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-22-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-21-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-20-2009 |
     RSS
FEEDS
Sports Picks
HOME
TO: |
