Nba Handicapping - April 23, 2008
We went 2-1 yesterday for +2.4 units. That boosts us to 55% and plus units in the playoffs. We are also +29.4 units overall the past 2.5 months. Tonight we have picks in two of the three games.
Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Philadelphia at Detroit (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Detroit -10 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Pistons were shocked in game one as nearly a double-digit favorite and that spells trouble here for the Sixers. The Pistons were definitely stung by that loss and now realize they took the game too lightly. We expect an inspired performance in game two by Detroit to atone for that embarrassment. This round of the NBA playoffs has seen the road team win game one, only to lose game two 18 of 22 times since the 96-97 season. Of those 18 wins, 14 have been double-digit blowouts! The Pistons were one such team in 02-03, when they dropped the opener to Orlando. They returned in game two to lay a double-digit win on the Magic. Detroit is 10-1 ATS thiss season at home off a loss. That includes a perfect 7-0 ATS mark if the loss was an upset. They won those seven games by an average of 15 ppg! History (of the league and of Detroit specifically) says the play here is on the Pistons.
Game: Denver at Los Angeles Lakers (10:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Los Angeles Lakers -8 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
In game two games thus far we have seen a few teams with a distinct skill advantage repeat their game one wins and covers (Cleveland, Utah, New Orleans). We put the Lakers in this same category and we like them again here vs. Denver. We pounced on the Lakers in game one noting how Denver really struggles on the road, especially vs. elite teams. That same dynamic is in play here tonight and despite any desire to even the series, they just can't keep with Kobe, Gasol and the rest of this high-flying Lakers team. They don't have the committment to defense. This will eventually be the downfall of George Karl who has done an admirable job with the Nuggets. But, he will never make it deep into the playoffs with a team that doesn't care about defense. We don't expect a letdown by LA as every team in the West has been conditioned to never take a night off this year. Unlike the east where a couple of teams absolutely dominated, in the West it was a dogfight all year and as a result the mindset is for no team to ever feel overconfident or safe. Kobe said after game one, "We played good enough to win the game, but I don't think we are completely pleased with the way we played." This tells us he is not resting on his laurels. Denver is now 2-11 ATS on the road the past two seasons vs. elite teams that outscore their competition by 6+ ppg. This season they own a 4-12 ATS mark on the road vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 3+ ppg and they are 5-13 ATS vs. great offensive opponents (those averaging 103+ ppg). In contrast, LA is 18-4 ATS in their last 22 vs. teams averaging 100+ ppg and 13-5 ATS overall this season vs. teams scoring 103+ppg. Denver can outscoure weaker foes and roll over them. But, when they face a great team that can also score, they are in deep trouble. Lakers to make it two in a row.
NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-22-2008
Much as we saw the better team prevail in two straight home games in the Cleveland-Washington series, we see the Hornets prevailing yet again tonight in game two. They are just better than Dallas. Whi...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-21-2008
Think DeShawn Stevenson is regretting his comment that LeBron was "overrated"? Think Gilbert Arenas is regretting saying that Washington "wanted Cleveland in the first round"? Whil...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-20-2008
It doesn't seem long ago that Kobe was the spoiled brat who was trying to get out of LA and doing whatever he could to blame others. Now he has the supporting cast he needs, has put together an MV...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-19-2008
This will be the third straight time these teams have opened the playoffs in Cleveland. Washington has not done well at all here. The circumstances are much different this time around. Two years ago C...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-16-2008
Safe to say that Milwaukee has packed it in and there is certainly nothing to get excited about heading to Minnesota for the season finale. The Bucks are just 1-11 on the road in their last 12, and ha...
