Free Basketball Picks - April 22, 2009

Well we went 1-1 yesterday. Portland, our big play was up 104-95 with 17 seconds to go and the cover looked great. Two three-pointers and two free throws by Brooks later, the Blazers win by 4, missing the cover by 1.5 points. Argh! Anyway, we get back at it today with picks in all three games.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
MLB	22-14 Season-to-Date	61%	+$1980
NBA	246-198 last 444 picks	55%	+$8090
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
NHL	27-26 last 53 picks	51%	+$950
TOTAL			+$18340

 

Today's NBA Basketball Picks:

Game: Philadelphia at Orlando (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Orlando -11 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 98 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Orlando Magic have to be chapped at what they did in game one at home, as they allowed an 18-point lead to evaporate and ended up on the losing end. You know the resolve will be much greater in this one. What we saw was a team that dominated the Sixers, but thought they had them buried, allowed them back in the game, and ultimately lost. The Sixers have not been a good road team all season and even with the game one win, they are just 4-12 ATS vs. teams with a win perctage of .700 or higher. They are also 10-22 ATS vs. teams that average 100+ points per game. The Magic have made double-digit wins at home the norm. The Magic are 21-6 the past two seasons revenging a home loss. This season when a team beat them and put up 100+ on the Magic, Orlando is 13-2 ATS in the revenge game. Blowing that lead was a fluke. This time the Magic finish the job, so I'm going with Orlando to send a loud message here. I also like this game to go UNDER the first-half total. Game one went OVER the game total but UNDER in the first half. I expect Orlando to take no chances here and play very strong defense to start this game as they have something to prove. The image of Iguodala hitting that game winner has been haunting them for two days and they will put forth a top-notch effort to shut him and the other Philly young guns down early. Philly is 25-16 UNDER in the first half this season coming off a win while Orlando is 24-13 UNDER in the first half in home games this season when facing a winning opponent. Orlando and the first-half UNDER get the calls in this game.

The Heat wasn't on in game one. Dwayne Wade probably had his worst game of the season, shooting under 40% and contributing eight turnovers. The fact is that the entire Heat team was a no-show. There is a tendency for teams off a pitiful performance to come back extremely strong, especially Hall of Fame credentialed players such as Wade. The performance by Atlanta wasn't as good as the Heat performance was bad. The Hawks committed 17 turnovers in the contest. The last time Wade scored fewer than 20 points in a game where he played 35 minutes or more was all the way back on January 14. I'd not be surprised if he hangs a 40 spot on the Hawks in this one. Miami is 10-1 ATS the past three seasons coming off a blowout loss by 20+ points. I like the Heat to cover in this one.

I shared my thoughts on the pointspread side of this game, and why I like the Heat to bounce back here. I also like them on the moneyline. Coming off a loss like they suffered in game one, this team's pride is on the line. Atlanta might take things easily here after that kind of win and Miami will be fighting for their reputation. Certain dogs, coming off a big loss in the NBA playoffs have come out and won their next game outright 17 of 22 times over the past four years. This Miami team fits this situation. And, the Heat are 20-6 this season straight-up following a road loss. They are also 14-3 this sesaon following a double-digits loss including 7-1 when the loss was by 15+ points. Look for Miami to come out strong and win this game.

There really were some pitiful performances in game one of the NBA first round playoffs, and you have to think that New Orleans was right up at or near the top of that list of stinkers. The Hornets allowed Denver over 50% shooting both for the game and from beyond the arc, got schooled on the boards by 14, and lost by 29 points. There is usually a much better encore effort by teams that get dunked this bad. The fact is that under a certain dismal performance situation, such as what occurred here in game one, teams have responded by going 42-22 ATS in the next game - applicable to the Hornets here. I would expect the Hornets, a solid defensive team to make the commitment, and adjustments defensively here. The Hornets are 42-24 ATS the past three seasons off a road loss including 18-5 ATS if the loss was by double digits! The past two seasons they are nearly perfect (9-1) ATS following a loss by 20+ points. I like the Hornets to get it done here. I also like this one to go UNDER the total in the first half. Despite Denver shooting 50% all the way around as mentioned above, and the Hornets hitting nine from beyond the arc at 43%, the first game still played UNDER the total with just 197 total scored. I expect this one to get more physical and defensive, especially early on. The Hornets are 25-15 UNDER in the first half this season on the road. When playing with two days rest, they are 8-1 UNDER in the first half. The past two seasons New Orleans is 27-12 UNDER in the first half when revenging a road loss and this season they are 24-13 UNDER in the first half when facing a team that averages 100+ points per game. Hornets and the first-half UNDER.

As written in the pointspread pick on New Orleans, I fully expect that the Hornets will have a lot more sting in their step defensively in this one, and expect them to bounce back here. This game applies to a moneyline situation featuring teams off a bad playoffs loss that has produced 17 winners out of 22 games. We have 2-1 odds here on a situation that has produced 77% winners! On top of that, we have direct supporting evidence on New Orleans as the Hornets are 25-10 coming off a double-digit loss the past two seasons and 9-2 straight-up coming off a road blowout loss of 20+ points the past three seasons. It's bold but I think the Hornets win game two in Denver.

Results: 4-3

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Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-21-2009
The Cleveland Cavaliers opened a big lead early and cruised over the hapless Pistons. This Pistons’ team is a far cry from what we have seen in the playoffs in years past. The Cavs are the real ...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-20-2009
The Celtics felt the loss of Kevin Garnett as they struggled against the Bulls in game one. The Celtics got poor performances from their primary scoring options in Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce as well a...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-17-2009
The Celtics' chance of a repeat took a blow when it was confirmed that Kevin Garnett would miss this series, and likely the rest of the playoffs altogether. That isn't the death blow for the C...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-15-2009
The season finale for both these teams couldn't come soon enough. The Pacers have had some glorifying momemts, beating the Lakers, Cavs, Magic and Celtics. But that is one of the issues with this ...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-13-2009
Although it is too late for both these teams to do anything this season, the Wizards have not earned the right to be favored here. The Wizards have been favored 14 times on the season, and have been 4...