Nba Picks - April 22, 2008
We split last night but dropped our 5-unit unfortunately. Tonight we come back with three picks...
Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Dallas at New Orleans (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New Orleans -3.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 97 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Much as we saw the better team prevail in two straight home games in the Cleveland-Washington series, we see the Hornets prevailing yet again tonight in game two. They are just better than Dallas. While many picked this series as the most likely for an upset, the Hornets still don't get enough respect. This team is 57-26 and they have one of the top 3 point guards in the league. Yet, they continue to get disrespected as a team that might make an early exit. Paul dominated in game one putting up 35 points and dishing 10 assists and he should again produce here. Jitters led to a 12-point halftime deficit but the Hornets showed how good they are, outscoring the Mavs by 24 in the second half. People still expect Dallas to make some magic transition but the fact remains that they are 17-25 (18-24 ATS) on the road this season. Why is this going to change? New Orleans in contrast is 31-11 at home (27-15 ATS). Why is this line just 3.5? And let's not forget that the Mavs are just 15-26 ATS the past two seasons on the road vs. winning teams. They are 5-14 ATS this season on the road vs. good free-throw shooting teams (those making 76%+). They are 13-22 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams (those averaging triple figures). They are 0-8 ATS this season vs. teams that handle the ball well (averaging under 13 turnovers per game) so it's no wonder they would struggle against the Paul-led Hornets. Let's face it, when it comes to playing top opponents, the Mavericks just aren't very good. We expect this to be a low-scoring game early-on as well, just as the first game played out (92 first-half points). Defensive intensity naturally goes up in the playoffs. Dallas is 21-7 UNDER in the first half this season to a line between 95 and 100. New Orleans this season is 20-9 UNDER in the first half when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They are also 14-4 UNDER in first half in their last 18 home games! We like the Hornets to win and cover and for the game to go UNDER in the first half.
Game: Phoenix at San Antonio (9:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on San Antonio -2 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
What a heartbreaker for Phoenix. They lost in double-OT in game one as Manu Ginobili drove in the dagger in the final seconds. Tim Duncan does what Tim Duncan does in the playoffs, stepping up to the tune of 40 points and 15 rebounds. The game reminded Phoenix what they know in their heart. Against the league's best, especially on the road, they are in trouble. If the playoffs is about defense, you have to like the Spurs who average 89 ppg allowed at home (vs. 105.2 allowed by Phoenix on the road). This line is virtually a pick'em and we like the Spurs to that line given their 35-7 home mark this year and history of stepping up in the playoffs. Over the past decade, they are 80-45 ATS at home vs. elite teams (.600 or better). The past two seasons they are 53-40 ATS at home overall including 30-17 vs. high scoring teams (those averaging 100+ ppg). We'll back the Spurs for a second-straight win.
Results: 2-1
NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-21-2008
Think DeShawn Stevenson is regretting his comment that LeBron was "overrated"? Think Gilbert Arenas is regretting saying that Washington "wanted Cleveland in the first round"? Whil...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-20-2008
It doesn't seem long ago that Kobe was the spoiled brat who was trying to get out of LA and doing whatever he could to blame others. Now he has the supporting cast he needs, has put together an MV...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-19-2008
This will be the third straight time these teams have opened the playoffs in Cleveland. Washington has not done well at all here. The circumstances are much different this time around. Two years ago C...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-16-2008
Safe to say that Milwaukee has packed it in and there is certainly nothing to get excited about heading to Minnesota for the season finale. The Bucks are just 1-11 on the road in their last 12, and ha...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-15-2008
The Nets have done a good job all season, especially lately against the poor teams in the league at home, while the road has always been a struggle for Charlotte since their league debut. New Jersey h...
