Free Basketball Betting Picks - April 21, 2008
We went 1-2 yesterday to drop us to even in the playoffs and +29.2 units over the past month and a half. Tonight we have two picks including our first 5-unit selection...
Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Washington at Cleveland (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cleveland -1.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Think DeShawn Stevenson is regretting his comment that LeBron was "overrated"? Think Gilbert Arenas is regretting saying that Washington "wanted Cleveland in the first round"? While they may not admit it, those comments were stupid. Why fire up your opponent? In game one, it became evident that the Cavs were fired up and probably remain so. James put up 32 and the Cavs held Washington to just 86 points. It was the Wizards' seventh straight playoff loss to Cleveland. If they couldn't back up their words in that game, why should things change here? We know about the zig-zag theory but in this one we see more of a zig-zig with Cleveland taking both of the first two. Washington is now 18-24 on the road while Cleveland is 28-14 at home, yet we see a line here that basically calls the game even. This line is a full basket less than the game one spread, after the Cavs won fairly decisively in that game. In the playoffs, as they showed last year, it appears the Cavs know what wins - defense. They clamped down and should do so again tonight. The reason Washington struggles vs. Cleveland during the playoffs is this. They aren't built for these low-scoring intense defensive-laden games. Under Eddie Jordan, this team is now 6-16 ATS on the road when the total is between 185 and 190. We see more of the same from a still motivated Cleveland team.
Game: Utah at Houston (9:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 5 units on Houston -1 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
We were on Utah in game one of this series as they cruised on the road to an easy 11 point win. We will let history be our guide for this game two in this matchup. Since the 95-96 playoffs (the last 11 years), the results of game two have been extremely decisive when the road team wins game one in the first round. There have been 21 times a road team has broken through on the road in game one and what follows is not pretty for these teams. While they won the first game by an average margin of 8.6 ppg, they have gotten beat up pretty bad in the next outing., losing by an average of 12.4 ppg. That is an amazing 21 ppg turnaround which is the largest such change in any playoff game, any round. The home team has come back to post an 18-3 SU mark in game two, winning 15 of the 18 by double digits, and none by fewer than 7 points! In these games they are 18-3 ATS! The psychology is part of what is at work here. The road team goes on the road hoping for a split to take over home court advantage. Having captured that, there is an inevitable letdown in intensity. Meanwhile after a loss in game one at home, the losers know that another loss means they are pretty much finished. It falls into the old wagering adage of, "the team in need, is the team indeed." The oddsmakers have left this one alone, as they posted the exact same line as game one. But these games have proven over a very long period of time that the home team has shown to be, on average, 21 points better in game two after a game one loss. We will back the Rockets here to even things up.
Results: 1-1
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Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-20-2008
It doesn't seem long ago that Kobe was the spoiled brat who was trying to get out of LA and doing whatever he could to blame others. Now he has the supporting cast he needs, has put together an MV...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-19-2008
This will be the third straight time these teams have opened the playoffs in Cleveland. Washington has not done well at all here. The circumstances are much different this time around. Two years ago C...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-16-2008
Safe to say that Milwaukee has packed it in and there is certainly nothing to get excited about heading to Minnesota for the season finale. The Bucks are just 1-11 on the road in their last 12, and ha...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-15-2008
The Nets have done a good job all season, especially lately against the poor teams in the league at home, while the road has always been a struggle for Charlotte since their league debut. New Jersey h...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-14-2008
The odds-makers have reached a quandary with Utah playing at home. How much is enough to lay and what is too much? They have decided on a number that is simply not enough. Utah is 24-1 SU at home sinc...
