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Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Miami at Chicago (3:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Chicago -4

This is revenge for the Bulls, trying to erase the memory of their six-game series loss to the Heat last year. They went out and got Ben Wallace for the sole purpose of having someone body-up to Shaq. Shaq single-handedly put the Bulls away with a 30 point, 20 rebound performance in the decisive game six last season. In his last two years with Detroit, Wallace held Shaq to 21-points per game (PPG) and just 8.9-rebounds per game the playoffs, and in the 13 games over the two-year period, Shaq never managed more than 28 points, and in fact scored 21 points or less in 8 of the 13 games, and eight of the games he grabbed under 10 boards. Chicago was 31-10 in the United Center this season and in those 31 wins, 20 of those wins were by double digits. They averaged out-scoring the opponent by 15.8-ppg in their wins! Miami was just 17-24 on the road, and we realize they take on a different persona in the playoffs, but with Wallace, Shaq will not be the difference maker. The Bulls had a remarkable 36-16 SU record against the East, and we look for them to jump out to the 1-0 lead after game one.

Orlando is lucky to be here and after their quick start the Magic finished the year a not very playoff-like 26-37. They will draw a tough, physical defensive team in Detroit, who has been 10-2-1 ATS in game one of the conference quarterfinals over the last four seasons. They do it with a very intense defense, as they have held first round playoff opponents to 83-ppg at home, and not once over 100 points over the past four seasons. Orlando has been just 4-13 in their last 17 road games vs. teams with winning records, so they haven't exactly been hanging in these types of games. Look for Detroit to make a statement in game one and come away with a big double-digit win.

Houston may not be the better team. They have been just 1-7 ATS vs. teams with a winning percentage of .600+, and 0-7 as a 5-10.5 point favorite. Utah has played very well in these types of games posting a 16-10 ATS mark against teams with a winning record. Utah has done a great job of limiting opponents to second-chance points holding them to 10 offensive rebounds a game. When the defense cranks up in the playoffs, this becomes vitally important. They have a +3 on the offensive glass and a +6 on the defensive glass and that usually points to a team staying around late on the road in the playoffs, so we will back the live dog here.