Free Nba Basketball Pick - April 20, 2010

We nailed our 5 unit NBA Total of the Year yesterday going 2-1 (67%) overall.  This brings us to 8-2, hitting 80%, for +20 units during the NBA playoffs this year.  We are now 48-34 for +32.4 units over the last month and a half with our NBA picks. Today we have another BIG NBA day with six plays total including dual 5 unit selections. 

WUNDERDOG 2010 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	46-29 last 75 picks	61%	+$4060
CFB	25-10 last 35 picks	71%	+$6040
MLB	265-219 last 484 picks	55%	+$8370
MLB	5-2 last 7 picks	71%	+$350
NBA	48-34 last 82 picks	59%	+$3240
NHL	320-240 last 560 picks	57%	+$14660
WNBA	121-90 last 211 picks	57%	+$5490
TOTAL			+$42210

Today's NBA Basketball Picks:

Game: Milwaukee at Atlanta (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Atlanta -7.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total OVER 187.5 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The Atlanta Hawks made a resounding statement to the Bucks that they are here to win and are a rising power in the NBA East. The Hawks opened up a 17 point first quarter lead and cruised. I like their chances of doing it again. The Hawks have scored 99+ in eight of their last ten at home vs teams in this year's playoff field. The Bucks had it going but the loss of Andrew Bogut is hurting them, especially on the road vs a solid Atlanta team. The Bucks are just 1-7-1 ATS as a road dog in their last nine playoff games and have now played 13-3-2 to the OVER in quarterfinal playoff games. Atlanta is 35-7 SU and 26-16 ATS at home this season. They sport a 15-3 mark to the OVER following a straight up win and have the talent edge here.  They will play them in this one, with the OVER as well.

The Miami Heat came out strong and fast in the opening period scoring 29 points, but a ten point fourth quarter did them in. Don't be fooled by the low scoring of game one, as the Heat a year ago scored 64 in game one in Atlanta and followed with 108 in the next game. What has happened because of it is the total which was deemed fair in game one has been shaved by five points, getting almost teaser value straight up. The Celtics have gone 8-1 at home in round one of the playoffs the last two plus years, so getting them where they just basically have to win is the way to go here. Yes, Garnett is out, but his teammates will step up. This team knows how to play without him. The value here lies on the C's at home vs a good, but not great, team as a dog (considering homecourt advantage).  The total has shrunk by 4 points but a great defender is out of this game. Miami is 29-16 OVER this season coming off a road loss and dating back to last season, the Heat are a perfect 8-0 OVER when coming off a road loss in which they scored under 80 points. Boston is 17-5 OVER in April games since last season. These offenses will adjust and produce more points tonight. Go with the Celtics and the OVER here.

The Phoenix Suns don't play too many games at home or, for that matter, anywhere with a total posted under the 210 mark. This year they have faced just 14 totals under the 210 mark and they have played OVER to an 11-3 mark. The last 20 times they faced similar numbers a year ago, and they completed them showing 16-4 to the OVER. That means in their last 34 games facing a total of 210 or less, the Suns delivered on the OVER to a 27-7 mark. Many teams turn defensive in the playoffs, but that simply isn't the way the Suns play.  I'm going with the OVER here, where Portland has also been 19-8 to the over vs a team with a winning home record.

The oddsmakers looked at the game one defensive struggle and prepared for a public rush to the under for game two. They lowered the number by an amazing eight points from what was deemed a fair total in game one. That moves the pendulum of value to the OVER in this one. Just look at Miami and Atlanta last year where the Heat produced 64 in game one but came back with 108 in game two. It isn't the game one result that sets the tone for game two, but an eight point movement sets a different tone, one that pours on a lot of value in playing this contest OVER and that's the call here.

Results: 4-2

NBA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Take a look at our NBA power ratings here.
• Hop over to our basketball sports book reviews here.
• Check out our updated NBA Game-of-Day-Preview.
• Check out our updated NBA previous picks.
• View our updated 2009 basketball handicapping preivew.
• Hop over to our blog NBA here.
• Updated today: 2009 NBA basketball pick results.
• Check out basketball picks here.
• Read our basketball odds and lines here.
• Read our basketball ATS standings here.

Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-19-2010
The Cleveland Cavaliers built a 22-point lead and it truly showed the difference between them and the Bulls. The talent on the Cavs won the game by 13 points despite being held scoreless for over eigh...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-18-2010
The Orlando Magic came close a year ago, but couldn't manage to get it done. They have however, gained a lot of playoff experience the past few years. While that experience is a key missing ingred...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-17-2010
The Cleveland Cavaliers will have the best record in the NBA when the playoffs begin, so they will have the home court advantage as long as they last. They are facing a double-digit pointspread for th...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-14-2010
The Minnesota Timberwolves are closing the season in a bad way as they have become the early season New Jersey Nets. The T-Wolves are a pathetic 1-22 in their last 23 games, so posted as a favorite he...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-13-2010
The Denver Nuggets continue to excel on their home court, but the road is certainly not paved with gold for this team as their 19-21 mark is indicative of their struggles. A closer look reveals that t...