Free Nba Expert Pick - April 20, 2008
We nailed our 4-unit play last night to go up +3.3 units on the night to start the NBA Playoffs at 2-1. Our NBA picks are +32.4 units over the last two months. Three more NBA playoffs picks today.
Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Denver at Los Angeles Lakers (3:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Los Angeles Lakers -8 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 224.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
It doesn't seem long ago that Kobe was the spoiled brat who was trying to get out of LA and doing whatever he could to blame others. Now he has the supporting cast he needs, has put together an MVP season, and has his team as the top seed in the NBA's toughest conference. It's the 1980s all over again as we have LA and Boston as the top seeds entering the playoffs! LA beat Denver this season by an average of 16.3 points per game. In Denver, the Nuggets will have a fighting chance but on the road, they are in huge trouble. They were just 17-24 this season away from home and falter big-time vs. playoff teams who they can't simply out-score. The Lakers average 110 per game at home this season - more than the high-flying Nuggest average on the road (108.4). Yet, they allow a full 10 ppg less than do the Nuggs. Denver is just 3-13 ATS the past three seasons on the road vs. teams that win by an average of 6+ ppg. Los Angeles is 18-5 ATS this season vs. up-tempo teams like Denver (those averaging 83+ shots per game). They are 17-4 ATS in their las t21 games vs. teams allowing 99+ ppg. Lakers roll here. With the addition of Gasol, this team is THAT good. In terms of the total, it's hard to believe the oddsmakers have vaulted this total in the range of a regular season game, but there is no doubt it has been done so with the knowledge that the general public will be pounding the OVER here. What most don't realize is Denver has been in the playoffs three straight years, and is 14-1 to the UNDER in their 15 playoff games, and reached 100 points just once - in an OT game! The Lakers entered game one vs Phoenix last year, having averaged 107.4 ppg over their last 17 regular season games, and game one produced 182 points. Two years ago they entered scoring 107 ppg in their last nine, and failed to score 100 points in five of seven games vs Phoenix, with the first four going UNDER . These teams over the last two years in head-to-head regular season action have not topped 227 points, and the playoffs become a completely different game. There is no adjustment made here, and we expect this one to stay below the posted total. We're taking the Lakers to cover and the UNDER.
Game: Philadelphia at Detroit (6:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Detroit -9.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
It's the playoffs and you know what that means? Detroit is going to step it up big time and put the clamps on their opponent. This very experienced Pistons team will have no trouble with the inexperienced Sixers in game one. Detroit is motivated. They want to show they are not second-fiddle to the Celtics. They feel dissed and unappreciated. They also want to atone for recent playoff underperformance. In past years they have come in as the #1 team in the East but they have just one Championship to show for it. Make not mistake - Detroit will be looking to make a statement in this game. Philly allowed 100 ppg to opponents on the road this season while Detroit allowed 88.2 at home. The Pistons were 39-27 ATS this season as a favorite including 26-14 at home and 27-17 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. We look for the Pistons to roll to a comfortable double-digit win in this game.
Results: 1-2
NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-19-2008
This will be the third straight time these teams have opened the playoffs in Cleveland. Washington has not done well at all here. The circumstances are much different this time around. Two years ago C...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-16-2008
Safe to say that Milwaukee has packed it in and there is certainly nothing to get excited about heading to Minnesota for the season finale. The Bucks are just 1-11 on the road in their last 12, and ha...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-15-2008
The Nets have done a good job all season, especially lately against the poor teams in the league at home, while the road has always been a struggle for Charlotte since their league debut. New Jersey h...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-14-2008
The odds-makers have reached a quandary with Utah playing at home. How much is enough to lay and what is too much? They have decided on a number that is simply not enough. Utah is 24-1 SU at home sinc...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-13-2008
The Nuggets are unstoppable at home. They score quickly and often. In their last seven games against .500+ teams has shown them averaging just shy of 119 points per game. At the same time this team pl...
