Nba Predictions - April 09, 2008
Finished 2-5 last night. Tonight we look to rebound with two plays to add to our +37.1 units over the last month.
Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Milwaukee at Toronto (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 204 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Bucks have quit playing defense over the last 25 games. They have allowed 108 points per game and in their last 29 games, 21 have played over the total and nine of their last 10 when the posted total is between 200-210 have gone over. They are also clicking offensively averaging 106 ppg over their last six games. Toronto has been scoring and giving up a lot of late as well. The Raptors have scored 107 ppg over their last five, and given up 109.8 ppg. The Raptors have now allowed the opponent to score 100+ in 14 of their last 21, compared to nine of their previous 27. That is from 33% of the time, to 67% of the time! The Bucks opponents have topped the century mark in 21 of their last 26, and we like this one to go OVER.
Game: New Jersey at Cleveland (7:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on New Jersey +8 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Nets are not yet out of the playoffs. But, one bad performance and they will be. Trailing the Hawks by four games, there is no room for error. They are coming in with a bit of confidence after beating the Raptors by 9 points on Saturday. Cleveland seems uninterested right now as they have lost five of their last seven games. Sure, they want to win here to stay ahead of Washington for the fourth spot, but they don't seem to be overly motivated to bring their A game. This is a Cavs team that is just 14-24 ATS at home on the season, which gives us even more reason to like the motivated visitor getting 8 points.
Game: New Orleans at Minnesota (8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Minnesota +10 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
There is certainly more to play for here on the side of New Orleans and it comes with a huge price tag. The Hornets are posted as a 10-point pick at Minnesota. Certainly looks like a huge overlay to us. The T-Wolves began the year with a lot of former Celtics that came over in the Garnett trade and there were a lot of growing pains, big adjustments and roles being defined. They started the season taking their lumps, going just 5-34 over essentially the first half of the season. They had no chance against the good teams. They finished this stretch going just 2-10 ATS at home against the .500+ teams, and lost nine of them by double-digits! Their average margin in those games was -14.1 points per game - all at home. This team matured as the season went on and a 5-34 team has since been 14-24. What was unthinkable in the first half became a reality. Those same games against the .500+ teams resulted in more double-digit wins (3), than double digit losses (2). They transformed a 1-11 SU, 2-10 ATS mark for a 4-7 SU and 8-3 ATS mark. This team was never more than a 10 point dog to any team at home even at 5-34. Now that they have been a much improved team, this is the highest line posted against them at home. This line is jacked up because the books know that New Orleans is playing for something, but Minnesota is as well. They took their biggest loss of the season to New Orleans by 34 points. New Orleans showed no mercy running it up even in the fourth quarter. Remember Seattle the other night against Denver after getting humiliated 168-116? They beat them outright as a double-digit dog. If you think Minnesota has been a no-show at home against these good teams, think again. They lost to Boston by two, San Antonio by one, Detroit by four. They beat Utah twice, beat Philadelphia and lost to Houston in the middle of their big streak by just six points. The public was all over Denver against Seattle a few nights ago, and drove the line up. Well this one opened at 9.5 and went to 10, now 10.5. For New Orleans, this is the perfect sandwich game. They lost to San Antonio at home last night, and will leave after this one for a showdown in LA on Friday, which will be three games in 4 nights. We don't expect them to expend a ton of energy in this one. We do expect to see Minnesota throw their "A" game at the Hornets - just like Seattle did to Denver and that means they stay within this number.
Game: New Orleans at Minnesota (8:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 1 unit on Minnesota +475 (moneyline) (risk 1 to win 4.8)
We like this game quite a bit and we could see Minnesota pulling this one out. We'll take a one-unit flyer on the moneyline.
NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-08-2008
Charlotte was eliminated from the playoff picks last game, losing by 23 to the Celtics. In that game they scored just 78 points. They have put up under 100 in nine of their last fifteen games. Minneso...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-06-2008
After the Warriors 117-86 win over Memphis, they are now tied with Denver for the last playoff spot in the West. Their offense got back on track after two mediocre games. But, those two sub-par perfor...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-05-2008
Two playoff teams collide in Cleveland this afternoon with seeding implications and we expect an intense, defense-laden game. Orlando has gone UNDER in seven of their last eight games. Cleveland has g...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-04-2008
The Hawks have won five straight, averaging 116 ppg in those wins, and are beating some !GOOD1! teams. The Sixers are 28-44 ATS under Mo Cheeks in games with a total set at 200 or more. That...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-03-2008
It's hard to justify this line. Even though Sacramento has done a nice job at home, they haven't exactly dominated, or played with intensity against, the lesser teams in the NBA. They are...
