Free Basketball Pick - April 08, 2008

We're coming off a 3-1 Monday and have seven picks tonight...

Today's NBA Basketball Picks:

Game: Minnesota at Charlotte (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 200 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Charlotte was eliminated from the playoff picks last game, losing by 23 to the Celtics. In that game they scored just 78 points. They have put up under 100 in nine of their last fifteen games. Minnesota has scored 90 or less in four of their last seven games. Neither team has much to play for and we expect a low-scoring game as a result. The Wolves average just 92.9 ppg on the season away from home. They are 23-13 UNDER as a road dog this season and 10-2 UNDER on the road in non-conference games. Charlotte is 20-9 UNDER the past two seasons after scoring 85 or less last game.

The Miami roster has been reduced to what amounts to a pick-up team. Their last 11 games have not been pretty. They have shot just 37.4% and the offense for the most part is running the shot clock, and hoisting 3's. They have launched 245 long-rangers over the last 11 games. The problem is, even when they are hot, and successful, the results have been poor. On Friday they hit 19-32 from beyond the arc, which would usually mean an automatic win, but it resulted in a 14 point loss! That just shows how much is wrong with this team right now. They also recently hit 11-27 good for over 40%, and still lost by 28! They hit 9-17, over 50%, and lost by 20. The problem is when they don't hit them, they lose by even larger amounts. This team has averaged just 78.1 ppg in the last 11 games. Chicago has not had a good season, but they are 9-5 ATS on the road vs teams that will not be in the playoffs, and that includes a 30 point win here in Miami. We expect more of the same tonight, and a double-digit Bulls win is in order.

Boston has the big three on the bench but they keep winning. Their win over Charlotte put them in the record-books for the biggest single-season turnaround in the history of the NBA. In two prior games this season, Milwaukee scored 77 and 82 points. Headed for the lottery, we don't expect much of an inspired effort here by the home team. And, with Boston's firepower on the bench, we expect to see more of what we have seen of late from Boston - low scoring on both ends of the court. The Celts have allowed just 42.6 ppg in the first half the last five games. We'll back the first-half UNDER here. We also like the Celtics to win and cover in this one. The backups are playing very good basketball and with the line adjustments, this team sill has value. They are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. losing teams and 25-8 ATS this season as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5. Milwaukee is just 1-9 ATS at home in April games this season and last. Boston and the 1H under here.

Detroit is resting starters but the results on the defensive end of the floor have been just as good. Outside of games agaisnt high-flying Phoenix and Denver, the Pistons have allowed an average of 82.9 ppg over their last 13! In the last week and a half they have held three opponents to 75 or less! They now get the lowly Knicks and we expect another great defensive showing for the Pistons who have given up just 88.1 ppg on the season here at home. They are 15-5 UNDER the past two seasons at home vs. poor defensive teams like New York. Isiah Thomas is 16-5 UNDER as a coach after scoring 100+ ppg in three straight games. This one should be ugly and very low-scoring.

It's been another long year for Memphis, and they cashed in their chips when they decided to trade Gasol to the Lakers. Phoenix is in no position to take a night off, as all games are now crucial. They sit tied for 6th in the competitive NBA West, just one game out of the critical #4 spot, which separates 1st round home teams from having to play on the road. Memphis has been totally non-competitive at home vs .500+ teams. Since Christmas, they are 0-14 SU, and 0-14 ATS vs these teams at home, and they have dropped the last seven by 14 points or more. Of the 14 played, they have lost 12 by 14 or more points, with an average losing margin of a whopping 18.4 ppg! They allow 106.5 ppg on the season, but they have allowed 116 ppg since they traded Gasol in home games vs teams over .500. This is too big of a game for the Suns not to bring their "A" game, and Memphis has been futile all season in this situation. Suns in a blowout.

There is growing support for the Sonics as this one opened at 18.5, and has been bought down to 17 as of this posting. We loved the Sonics in their last game, a revenge match vs Denver, after being humiliated 168-116. We knew that would be a game of the year type showing from the Sonics. So what is left in the aftermath? A team that has packed it in a long time ago, off a seven game homestand that was totally unproductive, but fruitful revenge on the last day. We expect them to be a complete no-show here, while Dallas fights for their playoff lives down the stretch. Dallas is currently holding down 7th place, and with Golden State and Denver breathing down their back, they are not out of the woods yet, and a good showing is likely at home. Seattle has dropped their last four on the road vs the "BIG" teams by 30 ppg, and with a no-show likely after they put it all on the floor in their big revenge game, a similar result is likely tonight as we expect a Dallas 20+ point blowout.

Results: 2-5

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Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-06-2008
After the Warriors 117-86 win over Memphis, they are now tied with Denver for the last playoff spot in the West. Their offense got back on track after two mediocre games. But, those two sub-par perfor...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-05-2008
Two playoff teams collide in Cleveland this afternoon with seeding implications and we expect an intense, defense-laden game. Orlando has gone UNDER in seven of their last eight games. Cleveland has g...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-04-2008
The Hawks have won five straight, averaging 116 ppg in those wins, and are beating some !GOOD1! teams. The Sixers are 28-44 ATS under Mo Cheeks in games with a total set at 200 or more. That...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-03-2008
It's hard to justify this line. Even though Sacramento has done a nice job at home, they haven't exactly dominated, or played with intensity against, the lesser teams in the NBA. They are...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-02-2008
In the days off Bird, McHale and Parrish, 60-win seasons were the norm for the Celtics. They have a chance to reach that plateau tonight for the first time since the 1986 season. The get a Pacers team...