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Basketball Betting Pick - April 05, 2009We went 3-0 last night good for +10.9 units thanks to nailing a 5-unit and 4-unit. Today we roll with five picks including another 5-unit selection. Interested in Baseball Picks? We are releasing our 2009 MLB previews and if you aren't receiving, sign up for our free baseball picks newsletters by logging in here, then adding MLB.  Today's NBA Basketball Picks: Neither of these two teams is playing well as the season winds down. Cleveland faces the possibility of a third-straight loss for the first time this season. They have a 3.5 game lead over Boston in the East and a one game lead over the Lakers for the top spot overall. Something just isn't right with Cleveland right now as evidenced by a loss to the worst team in the East, Washington, on Thursday and a 116-87 beat down at the hands of the Magic on Friday. Their league-best defense has been awful the past two games. They are 36-1 here at home and after those bad losses, the conventional wisdom is that they will lay a beat down on the Spurs. I think San Antonio keeps it close. They are also is motivated to step up its play. They won last game but prior to that, suffered back-to-back losses with one coming against lowly Oklahoma City. In addition, the Spurs are playing with revenge as they lost to Cleveland at home by 11 points back in February. This is a veteren team that knows this game is a statement-maker and confidence builder. A big loss here after their recent performance would really hurt the Spurs' confidence. As such, I think they bring their A game. Is their A game good enough to hang with the Cavs at Quicken? Yes! San Antonio is 23-14 on the road this season (21-15 ATS). They can hit from the outside and those kinds of teams can give the Cavs trouble. The Spurs are a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when revenging a same-season loss. I like the Spurs to stay within this number. I also like the UNDER. Both of these teams have excellent defenses that tend to step up when facing another great team. The Spurs are 55-36 UNDER the past two seasons when facing a winning opponent. They are also 48-30 UNDER to a total in the 180s over that span (including 16-5 UNDER between 180 and 185!). Cleveland is 74-52 UNDER vs. winning teams the past three seasons and 55-33 UNDER overall in home games the past two seasons. Take the Spurs and the UNDER.Game: Phoenix at Dallas (3:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 230 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7) This total has gotten near absurd-level. Yes, these teams both love high-scoring games. But 230 is a very high bar to hit and I think it's too high. Emotional bettors have forced the linesmakers to juice this line, but the numbers tell us the value is on the UNDER. Phoenix games average 216 per game and Dallas games average 201 per game. Yes, Phoenix games have averaged 231 points per game over their last five, but there are two teams playing here. Dallas' last five games have averaged just 196! With both teams fighting for the final Western playoff spot, I expect more defense than normal and I like the UNDER here.Game: Indiana at Oklahoma City (7:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 5 units on Indiana +2 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6) The only interesting thing about this game will be Danny Granger and Kevin Durant - two bright stars on really bad teams. Both players are averaging 25 points per game. It's not often we see the Thunder as a favorite. And it's not often they are deserving. The fact is, they are not the best team on the court today and home-court advantage is not enough to justify them laying points. Indiana has 11 more wins and a much better offense. Yes, the Pacers have the worse defense but the offensive discrepancy is much larger. Over their last five games, the Thunder are averaging just 87.9 ppg while Indiana is averaging 110! I like the Pacers to run hard and I don't see Oklahoma City keeping up with them.Game: Portland at Houston (7:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 186 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7) Portland has a chance to clinch a playoff berth for the first time in six seasons. They are playing very well right now, but will face a very stiff test today in Houston. The Rockets have won 15 of their last 17 home games thanks to stifling defense. They have held those 17 foes to just 91.1 points per game. Portland also plays very good defense, averaging 94.8 allowed per game this season and 93.0 over their last five games. I expect a high-intensity game (playoff atmosphere) in this one and a lot of defense. Portland is 24-13 UNDER the past two seasons when facing a team at .600 or better and 43-30 UNDER as an underdog over that span. They are also 29-12 UNDER during that span after scoring 105+ last game. Houston is 24-12 UNDER the past two seasons as a small home favorite (six or less). The UNDER gets the call here. Results: 1-3 NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters: NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-04-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-03-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-02-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-01-2009 NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-31-2009 |
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