Nba Picks - April 05, 2008
We cashed our 5-unit NBA Game Of The Year in blowout fashion last night with the Jazz. That boosts our recent run on 5-unit picks to 7-1. Overall we went 5-3 for a great night. We have five picks today...
Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Orlando at Cleveland (3:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 97 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Two playoff teams collide in Cleveland this afternoon with seeding implications and we expect an intense, defense-laden game. Orlando has gone UNDER in seven of their last eight games. Cleveland has gone OVER twice in a row after going UNDER in seven of eight. We like the odds of Cleveland avoiding a third-straight weak defensive effort after giving up 215 in the past two. Over their past five games, the Magic have held opponents to 45 ppg in the first half adn Cleveland has been all about defense vs. elite teams, especially at home. We see this one coming in UNDER 97 in the first half, when the sting of the past two games is strongest for Cleveland and intensity is the highest.
Game: Atlanta at Philadelphia (7:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Philadelphia -5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)Pick: 4 units on Game Total OVER 205.5 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Philadelphia took care of the Hawks by 5 points on the road last night. Why can't they win by at least that much tonight? Atlanta is hanging on to the eigth spot but it certainly isn't due to stellar road play. They are just 10-27 on the road this season (15-22 ATS) and 11-21 ATS as a road dog. Their offense has been clicking but their defense has been atrocious. When playing teams like Philly that take care of the ball (those averaging under 15 turnovers per game), Atlanta is now just 11-21 ATS this season. The Sixers are 29-13 ATS vs. teams like Atlanta that force under 15 turnovers per game. We rode the OVER last night with these teams in Atlanta, and we'll do the same here tonight in Philadelphia. Atlanta has become a very offensive team, and has played OVER in nine of their last eleven. They are now averaging a Phoenix-like 110.2 ppg over their last 12 games. They are also now 17-6 to the OVER in totals posted at 200+ since January 23rd. They are also giving up 103.4 ppg in the last 12 as well. Philadelphia managed to score 100 points or more in just 11 of their first 44 games, or 25% of the time. They have since also become an offensive minded team, as they have reached the century mark in 20 of their last 32 or 62.5% of the time. The Hawks are also an OVER team when playing on back-to-back nights, as they have gone 8-2 to the OVER in their last 10, beating the total by 10 ppg on average! Philadelphia has also been an OVER team on back-to-back nights, as they have gone 7-2 to the over in their last nine. Look for another high scoring game here again with Philly coming out on top.
Game: Boston at Charlotte (7:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Charlotte +2.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
So what's left now for the Celtics? They got win number 60, and have clinched home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. The rash of injuries that has occured around the league will certainly lead to added bench time for Boston starters. Rivers announced he'd be resting his starters here, moving the line on this down from a high of about 9 to 2.5. It's probably a good thing Charlotte isn't a playoff team. They have given the Celtics fits. The last nine times these teams have met, the Bobcats have won four and the losses have come by 1, 1, 2, 3 and 6 points. The wins have come by 12, 8, 9 and 2 points! The Bobcats have actually outscored the Celtics over the past few seasons, and that includes this year with the new-look Celtics as well. Charlotte is a bad team, but good at home at 19-19. And for whatever reason, they play their best vs the Celtics. Charlotte is going through one of their best stretches in franchise history, having gone 10-8 over their last 18. With nothing to play for, and the way the Bobcats show-up for the Celtics, we will ride them as a live home dog. Yes, the line has come way down from where it was, but we figure Charlotte had an outside chance at winning with Boston's best in the game. Without them, we like Charlotte here even more.
Game: Toronto at New Jersey (7:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Toronto -4.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
We faded New Jersey last night and will do so again tonight. This team is playing horribly despite their need to win and that tells us how bad they really are (either in talent or attitude, or both). With Jason Kidd gone to Dallas and Vince Carter on the sidelines, they don't have much at all. Richard Jefferson is good, but not good enough to pick up a team and win games on his own. The Nets have now lost four in a row, going 1-3 ATS in those games. Toronto isn't playing much better but they have the talent to pull out of it. And, while the Nets have to be resigned to the reality that their season is nearly over, Toronto is gearing up for the playoffs and should be able to muster enough to overcome their recent slump. They have performed very well all season vs. division foes (9-5, scoring 101.1 per game) while New Jersey is 3-10 SU and ATS in division games, avaeraging just 90 ppg. The much better team here should roll.
NBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-04-2008
The Hawks have won five straight, averaging 116 ppg in those wins, and are beating some !GOOD1! teams. The Sixers are 28-44 ATS under Mo Cheeks in games with a total set at 200 or more. That...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-03-2008
It's hard to justify this line. Even though Sacramento has done a nice job at home, they haven't exactly dominated, or played with intensity against, the lesser teams in the NBA. They are...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-02-2008
In the days off Bird, McHale and Parrish, 60-win seasons were the norm for the Celtics. They have a chance to reach that plateau tonight for the first time since the 1986 season. The get a Pacers team...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-01-2008
Took a hard look at the total in this game. The Bulls are averaging 97.1 points per game. We took a look at how they have performed at home against teams that allow under 100 ppg, and their production...
NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-31-2008
This might represent the lowest an NBA franchise has fallen in a long time. A lot has to do with injuries, as the Heat now have a roster of two veterans in Davis and Blount and seven other players wit...
