Free Nba Predictions - April 04, 2008

We went 1-2 last night. Tonight we like the board a lot and come with our 5-unit NBA Game of the Year. While we are 6-1 in our last ten 5-unit plays (includes three pushes) and we like this play a lot, remember any play can lose so stay within your bankroll (no more than 5% of overall bankroll on any play).

Today's NBA Basketball Picks:

Game: Philadelphia at Atlanta (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Atlanta +0 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 205.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Hawks have won five straight, averaging 116 ppg in those wins, and are beating some good teams. The Sixers are 28-44 ATS under Mo Cheeks in games with a total set at 200 or more. That includes a 12-24 ATS mark on the road in such games. Atlanta has suddenly become an OVER team. They have scored 100+ in their last five and are averaging 107.3 ppg over their last 11 games. Philadelphia has added 10 ppg of offense in their recent 20-7 run, and are also producing at a high rate offensively. Atlanta toppled the 100 mark just 13 times through games of Feb. 19th, and have topped it 15 times now in the last six weeks. It has been productive in the win column as they have notched wins in nine of their last 11. We look for that to continue vs the offensive minded Sixers tonight with an Atlanta cover and the game going OVER.

The Jazz are simply the best home team in the NBA. They are 26-12 ATS in this building this season and 24-1 SU over their last 25 at home. That includes double-digit wins in their last eight home wins! They have an amazing 25 double-digit home wins on the season! San Antonio is playing well right now, as they have won eight straight, but they are bad on the road at 7-14 SU vs .500+ teams on the season, and winning at Utah is challenging even for good road teams. The Spurs also have dropped their last three here, and as good as they are playing, Utah is playing even better at home. They are averaging 120 ppg over their last five games and are 22-10 ATS this season vs. winning teams (13-2 in their last 15). The Spurs are just 5-14 ATS this year in games with a line between -3 and +3 and over the past three seasons they are 7-19 ATS on the road after five straight wins. The Jazz to roll here.

The Nets are fading fast. Their chance to overtake Atlanta for the last spot has failed to materialize as they have lost three straight games and five of their last seven. So, a must-win situation can't get this team to win. Detroit has the second seed wrapped up but this is not a team to take nights off. They are 30-6 at home (22-14 ATS) and damn proud of it. No way they want to limp into the playoffs with weak play. In contrast, they will want to make a statement against what is technically a playoff contender. New Jersey is 8-22 ATS this season vs. winning teams including 0-8 vs. teams at .700 or better! They are also winless (0-8 ATS) the past two seasons vs. great defensive teams (those holding foes under 92 ppg).  Detroit is 8-1 ATS this season when they get on a defensive roll (allowing less 90 or less in three straight games). We see a double-digit home team win here.

Indiana is 13-25 on the road this season and they are laying points? This game started at pick'em but has moved 3 points. We think the linesmakers got it right the first time. The line has moved because of the apparent must-win nature of the remaining games for Indiana. The fact remains, they aren't playing well, having lost three of their last five. And, Milwaukee would love to play spoiler. Milwaukee is a winning team at home and they do especially well vs. teams that like the three-pointer. The Bucks are off a high-scoring affair and they are 26-15 ATS the past two seasons after a game in which 215+ points were scored. Take the home puppy here who has at least a 50% chance of winning outright.

Pau is back and with him, the Lakers again become the team to beat. They have slid somewhat under the radar during his absence. They fell to third place but someone folks have forgotten how good the Lakers are with him in the lineup. Dirk is back for Dallas too but who cares? This team cannot beat a winning team, with or without him in the lineup. Sure, they beat Golden State the other night but prior to that one game, they had lost 11 straight games vs. winning teams! We put more weight on the 0-11 than the 1-0. If Dallas is to have a fighting chance vs. good teams, it has to be at home where they are 31-7 on the season. On the road they are just 16-21 both SU and ATS. They are 5-13 ATS this season on the road vs. winning teams. The Lakers defense is weak but their offense is so good that it doesn't matter. We forsee a track meet here with Dallas really struggling to keep up with the potent Lakers offense. Dallas is 8-1 OVER this season on the road vs. teams at .600 or better. We like LA and the OVER here.

McGrady is in the zone right now and he is going to absolutely feast against the defenseless Sonics in this game. T-Mac scored 26 points in the second half of last night's game as the Rockets stepped up and beat a superb Portland team on the road. Houston seems to have broken out of their funk following their 22-game win streak. It's as if they got tired of hearing the naysayers and decided it's time to play well again. But what matter most here is the other team on the court tonight. The Sonics are a dreadful 2-19 over their last 21 games. Their last loss was by 18 points to the lowly Clippers! Houston is 22-15 on the road (20-16 ATS) while Seattle is 11-27 at home (18-19 ATS). This one could easily be over by halftime as we see the Rockets destroying the Sonics.

Results: 5-3

NBA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Check out our updated NBA prior picks.
• Updated today: NBA handicapping.
• Take a look at our basketball odds and lines here.
• Hop over to our NBA ATS standings here.
• View 2007 NBA basketball season preview here.
• Don't forget to read our NBA Game-of-Day-Preview here.
• Take a look at our basketball sports book here.
• Here we show our 2007 NBA prior picks season results.
• View NBA ratings here.
• Don't forget to visit our blog basketball picks.

Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-03-2008
It's hard to justify this line. Even though Sacramento has done a nice job at home, they haven't exactly dominated, or played with intensity against, the lesser teams in the NBA. They are...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-02-2008
In the days off Bird, McHale and Parrish, 60-win seasons were the norm for the Celtics. They have a chance to reach that plateau tonight for the first time since the 1986 season. The get a Pacers team...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-April-01-2008
Took a hard look at the total in this game. The Bulls are averaging 97.1 points per game. We took a look at how they have performed at home against teams that allow under 100 ppg, and their production...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-31-2008
This might represent the lowest an NBA franchise has fallen in a long time. A lot has to do with injuries, as the Heat now have a roster of two veterans in Davis and Blount and seven other players wit...

NBA-Basketball-Picks-March-30-2008
The mindset of winning can overcome a lot of things, and Houston is a case in point. They ran off one of the best streaks in NBA history, but when Yao went down, everyone immediately thought it would ...