Free Nba Pick - April 03, 2008
We went 1-1 last night. We are 60-40 in our last 100 picks over the past month. Tonight we have three plays...
Today's NBA Basketball Picks:
Game: Los Angeles Clippers at Sacramento (10:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Los Angeles Clippers +11 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 206.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
It's hard to justify this line. Even though Sacramento has done a nice job at home, they haven't exactly dominated, or played with intensity against, the lesser teams in the NBA. They are 11-4 SU vs the sub-.500 teams, but have won only three of the 15 by this pointspread margin, with seven of the 11 wins decided by 7 points or less. The Clippers have been a horrible road team, but not against the sub-.500 teams. They are just 1-21 SU against the .500+ teams, but 9-6 vs the teams under .500. The 15 games shows them with a scoring margin of +11. So in totality, they have actually out-scored these types of teams. The Clippers got a boost last night with the return of Elton Brand (19 points 5 rebounds 3 assists), and should be competitive here tonight. We also like the OVER here. This season the Kings are 19-16 OVER at home and 15-7 OVER to a total between 200 and 210. They are also 20-8 OVER revenging a same-season loss. Over the past two seasons, they are 43-30 OVER vs. poor defenses (teams allowing 100+ ppg).
Game: Houston at Portland (10:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Portland +6.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Rockets have lost all the confidence and momemtum from an amazing 22-0 run. They responded well initially with the loss of Yao, but it is now showing in their overall play. They have gone just 3-5 since, and a lot of things have changed. During their 22-game winning streak, their defense was very intense, as they allowed just 87.6 ppg, and not a single team scored over 100 points. Since that time, four of the last six have reached triple-digits. They have allowed 103.7 per game on average, going 3-5 since the streak ended. That is a change of +16.1 ppg! The change isn't just on the defensive end of the court. The Rockets also averaged 100 ppg during their streak, but since have averaged just 94.5 ppg. An offensive change of -5.5 ppg. Collectively with a defense yielding 16.1 ppg more and an offense scoring -5.5 ppg less, the Rockets are playing -21.6 ppg worse than during their streak! Portland has been a solid team at home all season, compiling a 25-11 mark. If you look closely, they win at just about the same rate at home as some of the NBA's elite Western teams. Phoenix (27-11), Lakers (26-11), Golden State (25-12), New Orleans (27-10) and Cleveland (25-11). Houston has played on the road against these teams eight times, with the average line being +3. Here against a team that has been their equal on their home-court they are -6.5? See the value? Portland is also 25-8 ATS the last two seasons as a home dog, further showing they are very under-valued at home. That 25-8 ATS mark is also backed by a strong 21-16 SU as a home dog. It further points to the fact that Portland should be in line with other teams Houston has met on the road with comparable home records. Portland has a good chance of winning this one straight up, and we will back them here as a live home dog.
Results: 1-2
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Check out the last five NBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
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