Free Baseball Pick - September 29, 2009

After last night's rain out, we jump back on the diamond with five premium picks including a 5-unit play. Over the last 10 days, our MLB picks are 23-18 for just shy of eight units.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	29-26 last 55 picks	53%	+$200
CFB	10-6 last 16 picks	63%	+$920
MLB	242-189 last 431 picks	56%	+$10690
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
WNBA	120-88 last 208 picks	58%	+$6060
TOTAL			+$30330

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Minnesota at Detroit (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Minnesota +150 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4.5)

The Tigers sure have been feeling the heat from the Twins’ 11-2 run that has closed the gap in the AL Central to just two games. The Tigers aren't doing themselves any favors at just 8-11 over their last 19 games to turn a no-race, into a bona fide pennant race. The Twins have been chewing up on right-hand pitching on the road. Notoriously not a good road team, the Twins have suddenly gone 10-1 on the road against right-hand pitching. The Tigers’ bats, in their last six losses, have produced just nine runs, or 1.5 per game, while the Twins’ bats have been sizzling hot producing 7.4 runs per game over their last 13. I'm going with the Twins here. THIS IS GAME 2 OF A DOUBLEHEADER.

You have to like the prospects of the Twins here as they are playing with house money and playing loose and free, winning 11 of their last 13. The Tigers, meanwhile, have allowed the Twins back into the race by dropping 11 of 19. You have to like the idea that the Twins have won 10 of 11 on the road against right-hand pitching, and producing 7.4 runs per game over their last 13. Getting the plus side of the runline makes sense here. The Tigers’ offense has been running cold, producing just nine runs in their last six defeats, or 1.5 per game. I’m taking the value of the Twins on the runline here. THIS IS GAME 2 OF A DOUBLEHEADER.

It certainly has been a trying year for both of these teams. The Nationals’ struggles were expected. The Mets were not. The Mets have been plagued by injuries, but overall have just seemed to be a group of underachievers. That said, how can a team that had such great expectations and underachieved anyway, finish up meaningless games on the road? The answer is not very well! The Mets are just 8-19 on the road in their last 27 games, and they have packed it in. The Nats aren't a pretty team and are often overmatched, but there has been a silver lining for this team. They haven't had a lot of chances at home against teams with losing records - just 18 since June 11. The good news is that they are 12-6 in these 18 games. The Mets as an underdog in their last 64 games, are just 21-43, and are now also 0-5 in Pelfrey's last five starts against a team with a losing record. The Nats actually have a better home record than the Mets record on the road, so I'm backing Washington here.

This is a very chalky line that is predicated on one thing, and one thing only - Felix Hernandez. Hernandez has been brilliant all season and deserves votes for the Cy Young award. There has been a sticky area for the emerging right-hander though, and that is this Oakland A's team. Oakland touched him up for five runs in five innings this season. The other side of the coin is Trevor Cahill on the hill for the A's. He has really emerged as a stopper. The A's are now 6-1 in his last seven starts, and he has pitched to a 2.43 ERA over the stretch. The seven games show that five teams have failed to score more than two runs for the game with Cahill on the mound. I like the matchup here and the long odds offer value. I'm going with the A's here.

The A's could have easily packed it in, but they have a lot of young players eager to make a splash down the stretch and have been pulling it off as they are 13-4 in their last 17 games. Felix Hernandez has had an outstanding year, but the A's pounded him for five runs in five innings in his only appearance against them this season. Trevor Cahill has been standing toe-to-toe with Hernandez as his last seven starts have left the A's with a 6-1 record, while he has pitched to an outstanding 2.43 ERA. The important part is that five of the seven games have seen the opponent finishing with two runs or less, so Hernandez better be working a shutout here, or the +1.5 runs looks very good. I'm going with the A's on the runline.

Results: 2-3

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Take a look at our 2009 MLB pick season results here.
• View our updated mlb picks blog.
• View our baseball gambling philosophy here.
• View our updated baseball prior predictions.
• Check out our updated MLB Baseball Game-of-Day Analysis.
• Here we show our mlb sportsbook.
• Read our MLB odds and lines here.
• View baseball free picks here.
• Read our baseball ATS standings here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-28-2009
The Detroit Tigers have done everything they can to make a race out of the AL Central. They had virtually put away a few weeks ago, but going 8-11 down the stretch has left the door open for a suddenl...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-27-2009
Some may worry about  LA's motivation here. The Dodgers have secured a playoff spot but they aren't done yet as they seek to clinch the West. This team is still about business as demonstr...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-26-2009
The Red Sox have to be encouraged by what they got from Dice-K Matsuzaka coming back from injury. He has worked 11.1 innings and allowed just three runs for a 2.38 ERA. His velocity is back and he cer...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-25-2009
The Pittsburgh Pirates are a complete joke, and they have just one player on their entire roster with even as many as 50 RBI. They also have just one player with as many as 20 HRs, so you would think ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-24-2009
It isn't often that you get an opportunity to play on the best home team in the National League at what amounts to even, or slightly underdog odds against a team that has struggled on the road all...