Free Baseball Pick - September 28, 2008

Today we roll with three MLB picks...

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Florida at New York Mets (1:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Florida +188 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 5.6)

The Mets need this game in order to control their own destiny and secure a shot at the wild-card spot. They look to Oliver Perez who has certainly not been consistent of late. I don't think the Mets are going to be lose here, given what happened last year. They were in this same position, and completed one of the biggest chokes in MLB history blowing a seven-game lead with 17 games to go. This collapase wouldn't be as big, but this team has to be very nervous and tight. These two pitchers have a nearly identical ERA (Olsen's is actually slightly better). And, Olsen has been hot (2.50 ERA over his last three), while Perez has not (5.19 L3). Florida on the road this season has outscored the Mets at home on average (5.0 runs per game vs. 4.8). Yes, the Mets need this one, which is why this line is where it is. But, I'm not sure that's going to help them.

The White Sox have lost five straight and eight of ten and can't get out of their own way right now. They go with Burhle here who is pitching on three days' rest. He's just over .500 on the season and he lost to the Indians last time he faced them. Cleveland does well against lefties having scored 5.2 runs per game vs. them. They pounded in 6.6 runs per game over their last seven games. Yes, the White Sox have the starting pitcher advantage, but right now Cleveland has the offense and the momentum.

Cincinnati starts Adam Pettyjohn here who is making his first MLB start in seven years. His last chance at this was in 2001 when he went 1-6 for the Detroit Tigers. Opposing him is Kyle Lohse who is concluding his best season ever. At home this season he's 8-2 with a 3.32 ERA. I like the Cards to win easily here.

Results: 2-1

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Hop over to our baseball blog here.
• Here we show our 2008 MLB baseball prior pick results.
• Check out MLB Baseball Game-of-Day-Preview here.
• Here we show our sportsbook reviews baseball.
• Hop over to our betting baseball here.
• View our updated MLB Baseball odds.
• Check out MLB ATS standings here.
• Take a look at our MLB prior picks here.
• Here we show our free baseball picks.
• View our updated 2008 baseball betting preivew.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-27-2008
The Brewers took over a one game wildcard advantage on the once again fading Mets. They will send Ben Sheets to the mound to try to maintain that slim margin. There is one problem, Sheets left his las...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-26-2008
Arizona sure had their chance to put away the Western Division in the NL, but squandered an opportunity when the Dodgers lost eight straight back at the end of August, and the beginning of September. ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-25-2008
This line is very inflated because the Brewers have a vested interest in the outcome as it pertains to their wildcard tie with the falling Mets. It is hard to lay two-to-one odds on a pitcher that has...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-24-2008
Once the Yankees were basically out of the pennant race they have begun to play the way they are capable. It seems as if the pressure has been relieved, and now they just go out relax, win, then go ho...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-23-2008
The Brewers are doing their best to impersonate what the Mets did last year and fall to pieces down the stretch. Something they quietly did themselves last year as well. The Brewers are just 5-15 over...