Baseball Prediction - September 28, 2007
Still rollin' as we went 2-1 yesterday to run our three-day total to 8-1 for +29.4 units.
Four more plays today.
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Minnesota at Boston (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Minnesota +184 (risk 2 to win 3.7)
The Red Sox seem to be teasing with the idea of winning the division, clinching the best record, and just when you think they have it, they slip. They will send Diasuke Matsusaka to the mound tonight to make yet another attempt to put the Yankees away and keep pace with the surging Indians. The Sox are just 5-7 since mid-September and Matsusaka has firmly hit the wall. The Sox have managed just two wins in his last eight starts. Matsusaka has walked 26 in his last 45 innings, and has either lost command as the season has progressed or has become bat shy. The reason is a 7.09 ERA in those eight starts. Meanwhile Kevin Slowey has become the pitcher the Twins had expected. He took his lumps early, but has really grown and become a confident pitcher on the mound as indicated by his 2.63 September ERA, and his seven-inning one-run, nine strikeout gem his last time out. The clincher has to wait another day as the Twins spoil one at Fenway.
Game: Detroit at Chicago White Sox (8:10 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Detroit +114 (risk 2 to win 2.3)
The Tigers made a stretch drive winning 14 of their last 21, but they couldn't overcome their lackluster second half. Kenny Rogers has pitched well since returning from the DL, not allowing more than three earned runs in any of his four starts, and that bodes ominous for the White Sox who are MLB's worst team against LHP. The White Sox have no business being favored against a port-sider, as they are a unit burning 15-27 against LHP, and have coughed up 12.16 units to their backers on the season. Javier Vasquez has pitched admirably, but the White Sox are just 7-18 in their last 25 against teams with a winning record on the season, and the White Sox overall have a losing record in his starts against teams .500+. We like the Tigers in a dog role here over a team that hasn't produced all season against LHP.
Game: Texas at Seattle (10:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Texas +109 (risk 2 to win 2.2)
Texas has made one thing clear, they haven't gone home yet! Fresh off a sweep of the Angels, and winners of five of their last six, the Rangers go with Edinson Volquez. Volquez has been a good start, bad start type of pitcher, so coming off a bad one we expect he will improve upon a five-run outing his last time out. Seattle went into fade mode in late August, and has been 12-21 down the stretch playing themselves into a pretender. Jeff Weaver has been consistent this season - consistently bad with a 6.30 ERA on the year and saving his worst for last. Weaver has given up five runs or more in four of his last five starts, and is averaging getting knocked out before completing five innings. One team still playing, the other has packed it in so we'll ride the Rangers.
Game: San Francisco at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:40 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on San Francisco +109 (risk 3 to win 3.3)
Not sure which team tanked the worst down the stretch between the Dodgers and the Mets, but either way you look at it they both get significant votes. The Dodgers did a disappearing act at mid month and have been 1-10 when it meant the most. The pitching has betrayed them as they have allowed 73 runs in those 11 games or almost seven per contest. David Wells gets the ball, and he has not gotten it done as the Dodgers are just 3-7 in his last 10 starts. Wells has allowed 72 hits in just 49 innings while pitching to a softball-sized ERA of 8.45. This may be his last major league start ever. The Giants already have notched five wins in six appearances in LA, and send Kevin Correia to the hill. Correia was converted to a starter late in the season and has responded very well. He has made six starts since late August, and the Giants have won them all. Those starts have covered 35.2 innings with just 28 hits allowed, eight runs and good for a 2.02 ERA. He has gotten better with each start and threw seven innings of shutout baseball in his last start. The Giants take the opener.
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-27-2007
The Reds have now lost four straight and send Matt Belisle to the mound. Belisle hasn't exactly been a stopper for the Reds. The Reds have been 3-10 in his last 13 starts following a loss and are ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-26-2007
The Rangers have taken the first two in this series, and have now won four of five. They will send Luis Mendoza to the hill to look for the sweep. Mendoza has been very impressive for the Rangers, as ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-25-2007
Jason Bergman has been a pleasant surprise for the Nationals. Bergman has allowed only 89 hits in 107 innings worked, and the Nats have been 5-3 in his last eight starts, and he has not allowed more t...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-23-2007
Jo-Jo Reyes has been awful in 12 appearances, posting a 6.98 ERA. In his starts, it gets worse at 7.39 - games in which he lasted all of 4.4 innings per start. In his starts this season, the Braves ar...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-22-2007
The Twins failed to make their annual late run to the playoffs, and in fact this season they have made a tremendous fade down the stretch as they are now 8-15 over their last 23, and have packed ...
