darrell,

Sorry - after a tremendous run over the past month (and especially over the past week), we took it in the shorts last night as everything that could go wrong did go wrong. The two underdogs both took the games late into extra innings but both ended up losing by a run. Two picks tonight in which we won't back off what the data is telling us - very good teams usually beat very bad ones.

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Good luck today...

Game: Baltimore at New York Yankees (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 stars on New York Yankees -168 (risk 500 to win 298)

The Yankees put up 16 on Baltimore last night. It was their second 16 run performance in their last three games. No real surprise here as Baltimore's defense and pitching on the road is horrendous. The Orioles have allowed 6.1 per game on the road this season. Combined with an average scoring offense of just 4.4, they are not a good road team. Tonight they start Daniel Cabrera who is just 1-3 vs. the Yankees and 6-20 the past two seasons vs. high-scoring teams that put up 5.2+ runs per game. Baltimore is just 18-46 as a road dog this year and they've lost 12 of 18 vs. New York already this season. Back to the 16 run performance... The Yankees are 26-5 this season in the game following a game in which 15+ runs were scored. Yankees here.

The lowly Royals surprised the Twins last night. They won't do it again tonight. Brad Radke goes and he's 2-0 with a 2.70 vs. the Royals this year. Overall at home he's 8-4 with a 3.56 ERA. Versus teams without power (averaging less than 1 home run per game), he's 20-4 in late season play. Radke is opposed by Luke Hudson (7.31 road ERA). The Royals rarely win on the road and they are 1-6 over their last seven games scoring 2.9 per game. In dome games this year they are averaging 2.5 runs per game. Their bullpen is awful as well. Strange things happen once in a while but don't let last night's KC win scare you off this one.