Mlb Pick - September 27, 2009

We went 2-3 yesterday, giving back 4.9 units as the Baltimore late swoon unfortunately swung it for us. Over the past week we've gone 22-13 for +22 units and look to build upon that today with six picks in three games...

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	28-19 last 47 picks	60%	+$2120
CFB	10-6 last 16 picks	63%	+$920
MLB	241-184 last 425 picks	57%	+$12160
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
WNBA	120-88 last 208 picks	58%	+$6060
TOTAL			+$33720

 

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh (1:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Los Angeles Dodgers -180 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.7)

Some may worry about  LA's motivation here. The Dodgers have secured a playoff spot but they aren't done yet as they seek to clinch the West. This team is still about business as demonstrated by the low-key celebration last night. After the win, Joe Torre said, "To me a celebration is saying we reached what we want to reach, but we knew we had to recognize getting to the postseason. We didn't want to let it go by without acknowledging it, celebrating so to speak, but a lot more work to do." I like the Dodgers to win tonight as well. They have won four of five vs. Pittsburgh this season and the Pirates have dropped an incredible 24 of their last 28 games. You tell me which team here is more motivated. The Pirates average just 3.5 runs per game this season vs. LHP and they are sure to struggle against Clayton Kershaw who comes into this one with a 2.85 ERA (2.33 in his last three starts). Give me the Dodgers here.

The Pirates have packed it in. In the midst of their 17th straight losing season, they have lost 24 of their last 28 games. They average 3.9 runs per game on the season (3.5 vs. left-handed pitchers) and are facing a motivated Dodgers team that puts up 5.3 runs per game on the road. Los Angeles has clinched a playoff spot but they are still looking to win their division. Pittsburgh is just 6-17 on the runline in September and 5-17 vs. the runline the past two seasons as a home underdog at +130 to -110. I like the Dodgers to win big here.

The Phillies are looking to avoid a third straight loss to Milwaukee here and they send Joe Blanton to the mound to stop the bleeding. Blanton is 11-7 on the season with a 3.82 ERA. He's opposed by Dave Bush who's had an awful year. Bush has posted a 6.22 ERA and 5-8 record and he's pitched even worse of late. In his last start he gave up 6 runs in 1.3 innings as the Brewers fell to the Cubs 7-2. The Phillies are great on the road (47-33) and they have the better offense here. They have virtually every advantage, yet the line here is low. I like the Phillies here.

While the Phillies have had closer issues with Brad Lidge, they haven't had problems with Joe Blanton who is 11-7 on the season. This is a game in which Philly can certainly win big as they have the advantage in offense and starting pitching. They are also motivated to turn around a losing streak that has seen them lose two in a row and four of five overall. Over the past three seasons, the Phillies are 30-12 vs. the runline on the road after back-to-back losses. This season they are 16-6 vs. the runline in day games. Milwaukee is 7-20 vs. the runline this season at home in day games. I like Philly to win big here.

Minnesota has a shot at the AL Central title. But they have to get through Zack Greinke to get there. Greinke is having a career season for sure. He's on pace to become just the seventh pitcher in history to complete a season with an ERA under 2.10. But I'm fading him today. People get carried away with Greinke, confusing stats with chance-to-win. His stats are absolutely amazing. But, he plays on a terrible team. With a season that puts him in the company of Pedro Martinez and Sandy Koufax, you'd think his W-L record would be stellar. It's not. He's 15-8. The problem, of course, is that it takes a team to win. Not one player. The Twins are 7-1 vs. KC this season so they will be the ones playing with confidence. They are averaging 5.0 runs per game vs. 4.2 for the Royals. They are hot, while KC is not. Minnesota has a winning record (28-19) vs. good starters this season (those with an ERA under 4.00). The Twins won last game 11-6 and they are 21-6 this season after scoring 8+ runs in their previous game. The Royals are 7-16 this season at home after allowing 8+ runs. They are also just 1-12 after allowing 8+ runs in back-to-back games! Minnesota has a 50% shot at least of winning this game in my book and at +170 odds, that spells a ton of value.

Zack Greinke is awesome. But, despite his amazing season, the Royals still are the Royals. They can't score and they are a losing team. Greinke has lost eight games despite putting up unreal stats. So, when we can get a better team at +1.5 runs at -130, it's worth real hard look. Minnesota has a winning record on the runline this season on the road and they are very hot right now, averaging 7.3 runs per game over their last seven games. In division games all season, they have averaged 5.8 runs per game. They are 18-9 this season vs. the runline after a game in which they scored 8+ runs. Kansas City is 1-8 this season vs. the runline after allowing 8+ runs in two straight games. I like Minnesota on the +1.5 runline here.

Results: 1-5

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-26-2009
The Red Sox have to be encouraged by what they got from Dice-K Matsuzaka coming back from injury. He has worked 11.1 innings and allowed just three runs for a 2.38 ERA. His velocity is back and he cer...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-25-2009
The Pittsburgh Pirates are a complete joke, and they have just one player on their entire roster with even as many as 50 RBI. They also have just one player with as many as 20 HRs, so you would think ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-24-2009
It isn't often that you get an opportunity to play on the best home team in the National League at what amounts to even, or slightly underdog odds against a team that has struggled on the road all...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-23-2009
The Nationals record their 100th loss of the season with a loss here tonight. Chad Billingsley was named an All Star this year, but since receiving the recognition he has pitched horribly. This is his...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-22-2009
Baltimore was not winning on the road all season at just 24-48 and have now dropped five straight games with their loss to Toronto last night. The Birds have scored just 11 runs in the five games, or ...