Baseball Betting Picks - September 27, 2008

We are on a three-day MLB run to the tune of 67% (6-3) good for +9.2 units. Today we roll with three MLB plays...

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Chicago at Milwaukee (3:55 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Chicago +138 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4.1)

The Brewers took over a one game wildcard advantage on the once again fading Mets. They will send Ben Sheets to the mound to try to maintain that slim margin. There is one problem, Sheets left his last start back on September 17 with a sore elbow after allowing one in two innings, and is pitching here because of the need. He may have even showed signs of problems in his start before that where he gave up five runs in six innings. After a rough start to the season, Ted Lilly has given the Cubs everything they expected and more as they are now 19-8 over his last 27 starts and overall the Cubs have won his last three. Spoilers in the making, I'm taking the Cubs here.

Aaron Harang was money last year for the Reds, but he has been a completely different looking pitcher this year, until recently. Harang has been the Harang of last year over his last seven starts. He has pitched to a 2.57 ERA. The Reds have closed out the season strong as they are 16-10 in their last 26 games. The Cards have been just the opposite, as they played themselves out of wildcard contention with a 10-16 mark over their last 26. With nothing at stake here, with Harang on his game and the reds finishing strong against a Cards’ team that has folded down the stretch, the value goes to the dog here.

I’m not sure if the D-Backs are gonna stretch Webb out here in his last start of the season. And although for the most part he has had another great year, a lot of that was front-loaded as the D-Backs were 9-0 in his first nine starts, but just 14-10 since. When they needed wins the D-Backs went 12-20 down the stretch and blew their lead in the West to the Dodgers, so why would the results here have any greater expectation at just about two to one odds? The Rockies are 7-4 in their last 11, and not just running out the slate. Glendon Rusch was misused coming out of the pen where he had a 7+ ERA. He is much more comfortable in a starting role as he has allowed three runs or less in six of his eight starts. This line looks like a must-win line for Arizona, and they missed all their must-win games, so I'll play the value side here and ride the Rockies.

Results: 1-2

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• View our MLB prior predictions here.
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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-26-2008
Arizona sure had their chance to put away the Western Division in the NL, but squandered an opportunity when the Dodgers lost eight straight back at the end of August, and the beginning of September. ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-25-2008
This line is very inflated because the Brewers have a vested interest in the outcome as it pertains to their wildcard tie with the falling Mets. It is hard to lay two-to-one odds on a pitcher that has...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-24-2008
Once the Yankees were basically out of the pennant race they have begun to play the way they are capable. It seems as if the pressure has been relieved, and now they just go out relax, win, then go ho...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-23-2008
The Brewers are doing their best to impersonate what the Mets did last year and fall to pieces down the stretch. Something they quietly did themselves last year as well. The Brewers are just 5-15 over...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-21-2008
The Indians are on a late-season mission. After sweeping the Twins, they are looking to do the same to the Tigers. They start rookie Scott Lewis who in two games, has struck out eight batters and not ...