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Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
MLB Baseball Premium Edition
September 27, 2006

darrell,

2-0 last night pushing our record up over the past month to 69%. Five picks tonight.

WUNDERDOG 2006 RESULTS (UNITS)
SPORTWINS-LOSSES%UNITS
NFL 11-3 last 14 picks 79%+8
CFB 13-7 last 20 picks 65%+6
MLB 37-17 last 54 picks 69%+6.5
NHL 208-140 last season 60%+24.6
CBB 174-128 last season 58%+46
NBA 207-197 last season 51%+10
TOTAL  +101.1

results Wunderdog Picks Results
Check out my 12-month performance here.

 

 

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The Wunderdog


Premium Picks

Game: Philadelphia at Washington (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1 star on Washington +169 (risk 100 to win 169)

Washington is playing loose and look to continue to spoil Philly's plans. I think they can do it. Cole Hamels is very good at home but on the road he's just 3-5. Pedro Astacio has a winning home record and a 4.00 ERA. The Nats have won 5 of 8 in this matchup so far this season here at home and right now they are finding a way to win. Philadelphia is just 15-25 this season after a close loss by 2 runs or less this season. Washington is 11=8 as a home underdog of +125 or more. Small play on the Nats here.


Game: Tampa Bay at Boston (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 stars on Boston -228 (risk 300 to win 132)

Yeah, gotta fade the D-Rays again on the road. Will this team ever win another road game - ever? I dunno. Tim Corcoron goes for Tampa Bay and he's off two horrid performances in which he gave up 11 runs in just six and a third innings. Josh Beckett is off two great performances allowing just 2 runs in 14 innings. Boston is now 24-4 over Tampa Bay the past three seasons here at Fenway. They are 32-6 her as a big favorite of -200 or more while Tampa Bay is 11-41 as a road dog of +150 or more. And, road underdogs of +150 or more batting.255 or worse, after scoring 2 runs or less 2 straight games are 9-55 (14%) over the last 5 seasons. Sawx again tonight.


Game: Houston at Pittsburgh (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Pittsburgh +126 (risk 200 to win 252)

Pittsburgh, as bad as they are on the road, is a good home team. They are 41-35 here including 20-15 vs. winning teams! Houston is not a very good road team (35-41). The pressure here is on the Astros. They need to keep winning to catch St. Louis. Pittsburgh is lose - they have nothing to lose. And, they have the better pitcher in Shawn Chacon who has a winning home record. Jason Hirsh has a 6.86 road ERA. Pirates for the upset win.


Game: Baltimore at New York Yankees (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on New York Yankees -225 (risk 200 to win 89)

The Yankees are 48-28 at home. The Orioles are the exact inverse, 28-48, on the road. Baltimore just cannot score on the road (4.4 runs per game) and are averaging just 4.3 per game over their last seven. They are 31-69 as an underdog this season. New York gets 5.8 per game vs. right handed starters and tonight they face righty Kris Benson. For New York we have their top ace, Chien-Ming Wang who has a 10-3 record with 2.88 ERA at home. Yankees and Wang here.


Game: Kansas City at Minnesota (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 stars on Minnesota -220 (risk 300 to win 136)

Minnesota - best home team. KC - horrible road team. Minnesota starts Carlos Silva (6-5 at home) who has gone 2-1 with a 3.20 ERA over his last three starts. Mark Redman makes the start for KC and he's just 3-6 on the road and has posted an 11.85 ERA over his last three stars. KC has lost the first two and there's no reason to believe they won't lose this one too. They are just 3-24 on the road off a loss to the same opponent over the past two seasons. Minnesota is 40-15 as a home favorite this year. Home favorites of -150 or more after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less facing an opponent after scoring 4 runs or less 6 straight games are 36-5 (88%) over the last 5 seasons. Twinkies here.


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How much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick = 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks. Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily over the long-term. For more, see my write-up on Bankroll Management.
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The Wunderdog

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