Baseball Free Picks - September 26, 2009

We posted another winning night around the bases at 3-2 for +4.1 units. We are in the midst of a six-day run on the diamond as we are hitting 67% at 20-10 for +27 units. Today, we roll out five picks including a pair of 4-unit plays.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	28-19 last 47 picks	60%	+$2120
CFB	5-3 last 8 picks	63%	+$440
MLB	239-181 last 420 picks	57%	+$12650
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
WNBA	119-88 last 207 picks	57%	+$5810
TOTAL			+$33480

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Boston at New York Yankees (4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Boston +160 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4.8)

The Red Sox have to be encouraged by what they got from Dice-K Matsuzaka coming back from injury. He has worked 11.1 innings and allowed just three runs for a 2.38 ERA. His velocity is back and he certainly looks more like last year's pitcher than what we saw early this season. The Yankees CC Sabathia has pitched very well lately, but he is a career loser vs. the Sox. Sabathia is just 4-5 against Boston as the Red Sox lineup seems to bear down on tough pitchers as they are now 21-8 against a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Sox have an impressive record of their own with Matsuzaka on the mound winning 10 of his last 11 road starts against a team with a winning record and 17 of his last 21 road starts overall. Impressive numbers by Sabathia, but even more impressive numbers by the Sox, and getting chunky dog value as well. I’m going with the Red Sox here.

The Red Sox have a lot going for them here as Dice-K Matsuzaka has gotten the velocity back that has made him a career 36-20 pitcher in the Big leagues. He also shines in this spot, unfettered by the road and the competition, the Red Sox are 10-1 behind him in road games against winning teams, and the Sox have handled Sabathia for a winning record in his career against them. The Sox have also put one in the win column to the tune of a 17-4 mark in Matsuzaka's last 21 road starts. The Sox have handled top pitching, those with a WHIP of 1.15 or less to a 21-8 mark as well, so getting the plus side of the runline, just magnifies the opportunity here, so the Sox get the call on the runline.

The Pirates won for just the fourth time in 27 games last night, but they have not won two in a row in over a month. You also have to go back to the first two games after the all-star break, over two months ago to find the last time they beat a team with a winning record in back-to-back games. It won't be easy against Randy Wolf who has been dominating hitters and shouldn't have a problem vs. a Pirates’ team hitting under .250 for the last month. Wolf has pitched eight straight quality starts and sports a 2.41 ERA in those eight, as well as not allowing more than six hits in any of them. He has a WHIP of 0.844 during this hot stretch, and the Dodgers have won eight of his last nine starts. I will go with the Dodgers in this one.

The Pittsburgh Pirates were like the blind squirrel trying to finding an acorn last night and they did as they got a win. That may not be the good news as they have not won back-to-back games against teams with a winning record since the first two days back from the all-star break some 10 weeks ago! They face a pitcher in Randy Wolf that is in the zone right now with a WHIP of 0.844 in his last eight starts with the Dodgers winning eight of his last nine overall. The Pirates are still mired in a 4-23 stretch over the last month, so winning here with a lineup that is producing a team average of under .250 for the last month against a hot pitcher is very unlikely. I'm going with the Dodgers on the runline here.

Jeremy Sowers has not been effective against the Orioles. For his career, the Orioles have beaten him up to the tune of a 6.46 ERA in the six starts he has made vs. them. The Orioles’ Jason Berken has not had a good go his first time around the AL, but he did manage a five inning two run start against the Tribe the only time he faced them. The Indians, however, have quit, and although they broke an 11-game slide last night, they have not won two in a row since August 27, so not very excited about their prospects and momentum, it has carried them right back into the loss column. The Tribe is also 20-43 after a win long term, so they have dropped 68.2% of their games immediately following a win and their 5-21 mark in their last 26 doesn't offer much confidence either especially as a favorite. I'm going with the Orioles in this one.

Results: 2-3

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Updated today: 2009 MLB prior pick season results.
• Check out our updated mlb blog.
• Check out MLB handicapping philosophy here.
• View our MLB record here.
• Check out Baseball Game Preview here.
• Here we show our baseball sports book reviews.
• Don't forget to read our Baseball odds and lines here.
• Here we show our sports handicapping mlb picks.
• View our baseball ATS recrds here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-25-2009
The Pittsburgh Pirates are a complete joke, and they have just one player on their entire roster with even as many as 50 RBI. They also have just one player with as many as 20 HRs, so you would think ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-24-2009
It isn't often that you get an opportunity to play on the best home team in the National League at what amounts to even, or slightly underdog odds against a team that has struggled on the road all...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-23-2009
The Nationals record their 100th loss of the season with a loss here tonight. Chad Billingsley was named an All Star this year, but since receiving the recognition he has pitched horribly. This is his...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-22-2009
Baltimore was not winning on the road all season at just 24-48 and have now dropped five straight games with their loss to Toronto last night. The Birds have scored just 11 runs in the five games, or ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-21-2009
The St. Louis Cardinals are chasing the LA Dodgers for the best record in the NL. The season is over for the Astros and it shows as they have now dropped their last seven games. Wandy Rodriguez has ha...