Baseball Handicapping - September 25, 2008

Yesterday we swept the board 4-0 to grab +13.5 units. Today we hit the diamond running with another four games.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Pittsburgh at Milwaukee (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Pittsburgh +194 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 5.8)

This line is very inflated because the Brewers have a vested interest in the outcome as it pertains to their wildcard tie with the falling Mets. It is hard to lay two-to-one odds on a pitcher that has been on the shelf since May 1, in Yovani Gallardo. That means a lot of innings for a pen that has blown 26 saves already this season. The Brewers have been shaky down the stretch with just seven wins in their last 22 games. Zach Duke has underachieved all season, but he has been very solid in three of his last four starts, where he has allowed two runs or less. Duke keeps the Pirates in the game, then it is roll the dice, and at two-to-one odds I'll stand behind the Pirates.

The noose is tightening around the necks of the White Sox as their lead is down to just a half game over the Twins. The Twins have taken the first two games and are playing loose and free. This is the pivotal game. If the Twins lose they are two back with three to play. The White Sox are 10 games under .500 on the road while the Twins are 25 over at home, but barely over .500 against right hand pitching. Kevin Slowey has been a full 1.5 runs better at home, 3.04 vs. his road ERA of 4.52, and the Twins are now 7-1 in his last eight home starts. Gavin Floyd has a road ERA of over four, and the Pale Hose are just 7-7 in his last 14 road starts. Minnesota has been 32-10 over their last 42 at home, and I like them to take over first place in the AL Central with the win here.

The only thing holding this moneyline down is Jake Peavy. It certainly isn't the way the Padres are hitting and winning as they are close to 100 losses on the season, and have been out-scored 22-5 in the first two games here. The fact is that Peavy has been poor on the road with a sub-par 4.20 ERA, so not even close to the same pitcher, and the Padres have been no better off with him on the mound anyway as they are 8-15 in his last 23 starts. The Dodgers are hot and 18-5 in their last 23, so I'll back them here.

I am still not sure what the books are thinking here, but I'll keep playing the value. The M's have reached the century mark in losses, and Los Angeles is fast approaching 100 wins, but the lines keep showing something different. The Angels are still playing meaningful games, to secure home field throughout the playoffs, so while the pennant race lines are -200 or more everyday, these lines are issued like LA is not going to show up. Well they have shown up enough to win 11 of their last 14, while leading the division by 20 games, and two of three here. There just isn't anything more that needs to be said, but Seattle against half the Angels’ regulars is not close to even money here, going Angels in this one.

Results: 2-2

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Check out our updated blog baseball.
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• Updated today: baseball sportsbook.
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• Hop over to our Baseball lines and odds here.
• View our updated MLB ATS records.
• Take a look at our MLB prior predictions here.
• Hop over to our mlb picks here.
• Check out 2008 season MLB baseball gambling preview here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-24-2008
Once the Yankees were basically out of the pennant race they have begun to play the way they are capable. It seems as if the pressure has been relieved, and now they just go out relax, win, then go ho...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-23-2008
The Brewers are doing their best to impersonate what the Mets did last year and fall to pieces down the stretch. Something they quietly did themselves last year as well. The Brewers are just 5-15 over...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-21-2008
The Indians are on a late-season mission. After sweeping the Twins, they are looking to do the same to the Tigers. They start rookie Scott Lewis who in two games, has struck out eight batters and not ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-20-2008
The Rockies find themselves under their most winnable set of circumstances in this one. They have been awful on the road and equally as bad against right-handed pitching. Put them in front of the home...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-19-2008
The Tampa Bay Rays are still disregarded by the oddsmakers despite putting together one of the best teams in baseball. The Rays are 55-23 at home, and consider the price of this game if it were the Ya...