Baseball Predictions - September 25, 2007
No games yesterday. Two plays today.
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Washington at New York Mets (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Washington +210 (risk 3 to win 6.3)
Jason Bergman has been a pleasant surprise for the Nationals. Bergman has allowed only 89 hits in 107 innings worked, and the Nats have been 5-3 in his last eight starts, and he has not allowed more than four runs in any of them. He worked seven innings against the Mets earlier in the year and allowed just a pair of hits. Carlos Beltran is the only Met with good numbers over Bergman, as the rest of the roster stands at .216. Tom Glavine has pitched well for the Mets, but he is not the type of pitcher that pitches deep into games, and the Mets’ pen has been horrible. They have allowed 25 runs in their last eight games pitching to an ERA of 7.34. Overall, the Mets have allowed 10 runs or more four times in the last 13 games, and are just 5-8 making their stretch run. That is 7.2-runs per game (RPG) allowed by Mets’ pitching. The Mets have actually struggled after a great start going just 52-50 in their last 102 games. The Nats have really struggled against RHP all season as they have logged a 46-65 mark, but have thrived against lefties as they stand at 23-22 to reward their backers with +11.26 units of profit. This line is simply way too high so we will back the value and the Nats.
Game: Colorado at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Colorado +132 (risk 3 to win 4)
Anytime we can back a red-hot team, such as the Rockies as a chunky dog, we will. The Rockies have rattled off eight straight, but that isn't the entire story. The Rockies have been one of the best teams in baseball for a longtime. They got off to a horrible 18-27 start, but have since gone 66-45, playing almost .600 baseball for the bulk of the season. The Rockies have out-scored their opponent 55-24 over this eight-game stretch, so it has been both offense and pitching producing. The Rockies are a MLB best 63-48 for +23.15 units against RHP. Ubaldo Jimenez has pitched great lately. He has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last eight starts. The log reads 47 innings, 33 hits and 15 runs, good for a 2.87 ERA. The Dodgers have wilted in the second half, and are just 26-35 over their last 61 and 1-7 in their last eight. Brad Penny was unhittable through the end of June, but has since been ordinary, posting a 4.09 ERA over his last 15 starts. The Rockies touched him up for three HRs and nine hits in his last outing. Penny had yielded just five HRs all season, but now has served up four in his last two outings. We like the Rockies to take game 1 over a struggling Penny and a limping Dodgers’ team.
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-23-2007
Jo-Jo Reyes has been awful in 12 appearances, posting a 6.98 ERA. In his starts, it gets worse at 7.39 - games in which he lasted all of 4.4 innings per start. In his starts this season, the Braves ar...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-22-2007
The Twins failed to make their annual late run to the playoffs, and in fact this season they have made a tremendous fade down the stretch as they are now 8-15 over their last 23, and have packed ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-21-2007
The Red Sox are really feeling the pressure from the Yankees. A runaway lead of 14.5 games has a flashback to '78, when the Sox crashed and burned after leading by 14.5 as well. The Sox have manag...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-20-2007
The White Sox have played well down the stretch, having gone 5-2 in their last seven games. The offense has been sluggish most of the year, but is at a high point right now, averaging six runs a game ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-19-2007
The Mets have totally collapsed. They had a 7.5 game lead on September 10, and have watched it disappear and are now clinging to a 1.5 game lead with the Phillies winning six straight. The Mets have g...
