Baseball Picks - September 23, 2009

We hit a home run with our MLB picks yesterday going 2-0 for +5.6 units, bringing us to 12-3 (80%) for +22.6 units in just four days.  Our three and a half month total is now 231-174 for +121.8 units.  Today we have eight MLB picks in four games.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Los Angeles Dodgers -180 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 2.2)

The Nationals record their 100th loss of the season with a loss here tonight. Chad Billingsley was named an All Star this year, but since receiving the recognition he has pitched horribly. This is his shot to return to form before the playoffs hit. He's facing Ross Detwiller who is 0-6 with a 5.80 ERA. In his last three starts Detwiller has gotten tagged for 22 hits and 12 earned runs in just 12.3 innings. Yes, Washington is at home here but so what? They average just 4.6 runs per game here and are 29-44. The Dodgers are 43-30 on the road, getting 5.3 per game. The Nats are just 22-59 this season vs. winning teams and 29-69 off a loss. They allowed 14 runs last game and, while many teams bounce back after efforts like that, the Nats don't. Washington is 5-14 this season at home after a 4+ run loss and 9-32 over the past three seasons after allowing 10+ runs in a game. The Dodgers get the call here.

The Dodgers are the much better team, still working hard to maintain momentum for the playoffs. The Nationals are done for the year, having lost 99 games already. They have packed it in as evidenced in part by their 14-2 loss last night. They go with Ross Detwiller here who hasn't won a game all season. The Nationals are 34-47 vs. the runline vs. winning teams this season and 5-11 after allowing 10 or more runs. I like the Dodgers to win by 2+ in this game.

Toronto has beaten Baltimore seven of eight times already here at home this season. The Orioles have packed things in. They've lost 91 games already this season, they are 24-49 on the road, 20-44 in division games and they've lost six in a row. Toronto isn't a whole lot better, but they are better. At home they have a winning record and they should have no trouble outscoring the Orioles tonight. Baltimore is so bad that they own a 21-38 record vs. losing teams including 8-21 vs. teams at .460 or worse! Toronto is 17-8 this season at home at -100 to -125 and I like them to get the win here.

On the road this season the Orioles have lost on average by a score of 4.2 to 5.7. Over their last six games they are averaging just 2.7 runs per game. They're facing a Blue Jays team that wins at home. There's no reason Toronto can't notch a 2+ run win here. Baltimore has a losing record on the runline this season and a losing record vs. RHP. With Guthrie on the mound, the O's are 7-15 this season vs. the runline in night games. And Baltimore is just 10-19 this season vs. the runline when facing a team at .460 or worse.

We scored with Minnesota at +140 last night and look to back them as a dog again tonight. This team is focused on getting to the postseason after missing it last year. They've now won eight of their last nine games. In contrast, the White Sox have lost six of their last seven games. Mark Buehrle will try to play spoiler in this one, but he's got some real competition on the mound tonight. Brian Duensing has a better ERA (3.22) than Buerhle (3.84). In his four starts this season, Duensing is 4-0 with a 1.70 ERA! Minnesota has the more potent offense, even when on the road. Over the past two seasons the Twins are now 80-54 in division games. After putting up 8+ runs in a game this seasons, they are 18-6. I like the Twins again tonight.

Minnesota is hot and Chicago is not. One team is striving for the playoffs, while the other is readying themselves for vacation. The chances of a big White Sox victory here, in my opinion, is low. The Twins have a winning record on the road this season vs. the runline. They also have a pitcher who is red hot right now (1.47 ERA in his last three starts). I like Minnesota here on the runline.

Oakland is in last place but they are playing with a purpose. They have clinched their first winning month in fifteen months as they have won 13 of their last 16 games. No team has a better record in September. Oakland starts Clayton Mortensen here who has been excellent in his last three starts (3.50 ERA). With the Rangers averaging just 2.9 runs per game over their last seven games, and a very strong Athletics bullpen (2.87 home ERA), I like Oakland's chances at a win. The Rangers are just 5-17 this season in games with a total set at 8 or 8.5, while Oakland is 23-15 after allowing two or fewer runs last game. I'll take the hot home team here.

Oakland is fighting for everything right now. Yes they are out of the playoffs this year, but this young team is starting to gel and they are building momentum for next year. They've won 13 of 16 games with and obvious desire to finish strong is there. They have the talent to hang in this game if not win it. The Athletics are 40-36 vs. the runline at home this season and here they get +1.5 runs as a buffer. They are knocking in 6.0 runs per game over their last seven games while holding opponents to just 3.1 per game. Texas meanwhile is just plain flat. Oakland is 51-24 the past three seasons vs. the runline as an underdog. I like them on the +1.5 runline here.

Results: 5-3

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-22-2009
Baltimore was not winning on the road all season at just 24-48 and have now dropped five straight games with their loss to Toronto last night. The Birds have scored just 11 runs in the five games, or ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-21-2009
The St. Louis Cardinals are chasing the LA Dodgers for the best record in the NL. The season is over for the Astros and it shows as they have now dropped their last seven games. Wandy Rodriguez has ha...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-20-2009
Both of these teams are red hot right now, but Atlanta is at home, with the better pitcher. Cliff Lee has been very good this season, posting a 14-11 mark and 3.00 ERA. But, it's Tommy Hanson...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-19-2009
The Cleveland Indians are seeing the results of their dealings before the trade deadline, which basically threw in the towel for '09. The Indians dealt their best pitcher Cliff Lee and their best ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-18-2009
One good note for the Rays is that they are back at home where they have been a tough to beat team for twoyears now. The Rays have raised the bar as they have become the winningest home team in baseba...