Baseball Picks - September 23, 2007

Split 'em yesterday. Five picks on Sunday...

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Milwaukee at Atlanta (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Milwaukee +105 (risk 2 to win 2.1)

Jo-Jo Reyes has been awful in 12 appearances, posting a 6.98 ERA. In his starts, it gets worse at 7.39 - games in which he lasted all of 4.4 innings per start. In his starts this season, the Braves are 1-7. Chris Capuano hasn't pitched well of late but he's been much better than Reyes on the season with a respectable 5.21 ERA. He got the start over Claudio Vargas because he has done well historically against the Braves (3.60 lifetime ERA). And, Atlanta is just 29-32 against left-handed starters. Also, Capuano is 21-13 on the road against low-scoring teams (4.8 or less per game). While neither of these teams aren’t officially out of the playoffs, it's not likely that either will make it. Atlanta has virtually no shot, at 5.5 games back. Milwaukee has much more hope at 2.5 back. They absolutely must win this game to keep any hopes alive. Milwaukee is stoked to be facing a LHP here as they score 5.6 per game against lefties on way to a 28-22 record. Good spot for the Brew-Crew here.

Gavin Floyd's return to the White Sox has found him in a better place, as he has yielded three runs or less in all four starts, and pitched to a 3.32 ERA. The White Sox seem to be in a different mindset down the stretch than the Twins. They have gone 7-3 in the last 10, scoring 5.6-runs per game (RPG). The Twins are used to playing meaningful games in late September, but not this year and the mindset is completely different. The Twins have struggled to an 8-16 mark down the stretch and appear listless while playing out the string. Kevin Slower toes the rubber for the Twins, and he has been less than impressive in his limited starts, pitching to a 5.00 ERA. The Twins offense has managed just 32 runs over their last nine games, and the White Sox have taken the first two games in this series in comfortable fashion, and will make it a sweep this afternoon.

The Texas Rangers sure expected more out of Kevin Millwood. Millwood has had a nightmare of a season and it about sums up the Rangers season as well. The Rangers put on a 13-2 run late, and it was the bright spot of a season full of disappointments. They have given it all back, as bad teams usually do, as they are now just 2-10 over their last 12, and the season can't end fast enough. Millwood earns $10 million a year for the Rangers, but the return hasn't been there. The Rangers have dropped nine of his last 14 starts, as Millwood pitches to an ERA in the mid 5's. Jon Leicester has made three starts against the Yankees, Angels and Red Sox, the three most potent offenses in the AL. He will find the going much more suitable against a struggling Rangers’ team, and we expect the Orioles to win the finale here to take the series.

Aaron has had about as good a season as any pitcher could have on a losing team. The Reds are 24-8 in his 32 starts, and Harang has the highest units won of any pitcher in baseball. It has been a charmed season. He will face a punchless Giant team that has been searching for offense all season. The Giants are just 2-8 in their last 10 and 6-14 in their last 20. The Giants have produced just 44 runs in their last 14 games or about three a game. Travis Blackley has not pitched in the big leagues since 2004, when he owned an 8.31 ERA, and had major surgery in 2005 for a torn labrum in his money shoulder. Blackley didn't exactly chew up the Pacific Coast League this season. He worked 168 innings, allowed 68 walks and was touched up for 21 HRs. The Reds are not a good team against LHP, as they are 22-33, however, everything changes with Harang on the hill. They are 10-2 against LHP in his starts, and 12-31 in everyone else’s. The fact is that the Reds are a .750 team when he takes the hill and that is the best team in baseball, so we will take them against a pitcher that hasn't seen a big-league mound in three years.

Arizona continues to build its lead in the NL West as they have now won four in a row and five of their last six. Brandon Webb nailed it when he said, "I think we're playing with a lot of confidence." In contrast, LA is really skidding. They've dropped seven in a row, dropping them to 6.5 games back. Arizona swept the Dodgers earlier this year and we think they'll do it again. Chad Billingsley has been stellar but right now Arizona is hitting all comers (6.0 per game over their last seven). They are 50-30 at home including 15-8 as a dog. What kind of run support is Billingsley going to get (LA scoring 3.4 per game over their last seven)? Hot Arizona squad at home here over a cold LA team.

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-22-2007
The Twins failed to make their annual late run to the playoffs, and in fact this season they have made a tremendous fade down the stretch as they are now 8-15 over their last 23, and have packed ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-21-2007
The Red Sox are really feeling the pressure from the Yankees. A runaway lead of 14.5 games has a flashback to '78, when the Sox crashed and burned after leading by 14.5 as well. The Sox have manag...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-20-2007
The White Sox have played well down the stretch, having gone 5-2 in their last seven games. The offense has been sluggish most of the year, but is at a high point right now, averaging six runs a game ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-19-2007
The Mets have totally collapsed. They had a 7.5 game lead on September 10, and have watched it disappear and are now clinging to a 1.5 game lead with the Phillies winning six straight. The Mets have g...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-18-2007
The Dodgers have quietly gone 17-9 in their last 26 games, and it is because of their pitching, as they have held opponents to four runs or less in 20 of those 26 games. One of the reasons has been th...