darrell,

Winning day yesterday. Five picks today including a big early game.

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Good luck today...

Game: Florida at Philadelphia (1:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 stars on Philadelphia -201 (risk 400 to win 199)

Ryan Howard owns the Marlins as he's led Philadelphia to a 9-5 mark vs. Florida this year. Howard is batting .538 with 9 home runs and 18 RBIs vs. the Marlins. This afternoon he gets to tee off on Brian Moehler who is 5-9 with a 6.68 ERA. On the road he's 2-6 with a 7.28 ERA. Florida is scoring just 3.3 per game over their last seven while Philadelphia is scoring about their average for the year - 5.4 per game. Versus division opponents like Florida, they are scoring 5.6 per game. Jon Lieber goes for the Phillies. He's been average this year but he is 48-20 at home in the second half of the season over the past decade. This one's about momentum and offense though and Philadelphia has both.

Zambrano is tough to fade, I know. But here we get a home underdog vs. a team that has trouble scoring. The Cubs have managed just 5 toal runs over their past three games. Over their past thirteen games, they have scored 3 or less seven times. The Reds can put up runs at home where they average 5.0 per game. If they can get 3+ today they have a good shot at winning. Kyle Lohse is struggling but the Cubs are still just 12-21 the past two seasons vs. a pitcher with an ERA over 5.70. And the Cubs are just 36-48 as a favorite of -125 to -175 over that same time span. Reds here.

The Brewers have won the first two games by a combined score of 22-16. San Francisco today starts Noah Lowry - ouch! Is there anyone more cold? In his last three starts vs. Colorado and the Cubs, he gave up 20 runs in just 10.7 innings. That's a 16.89 ERA. He's 1-5 in his road starts this season and he's pitching for a team that is 33-45 on the road. They've won just once in their last seven games, allowing 11.1 runs per game over that span. Milwaukee on the other hand is 46-33 at home and starting a good pitcher. Chris Capuano is 8-4 at home with a 2.99 ERA. Home teams that have scored 9+ runs for two straight games facing an opponent that has allowed 9+ runs for two straight games are 63-26 (71%) over the past five years. You say but wait - Milwaukee isn't that good. Well, consider that Lowry is 1-11 this season vs. losing teams. Meanwhile Capuano is 14-3 as a home favorite up to -150 over the past two seasons. Brew Crew here.

Cleveland, never a good road team, has dropped four straight and nine of their last eleven. They have no offense right now (3.3 runs per game over their last seven). Their bullpen plays awful on the road (4-19 record and 5.64 ERA). Texas is pounding the ball (7.3 per game over their last seven). They have a great bullpen. Cleveland starts Brian Slocum who in six games has posted a 10.57 ERA. Vicente Padilla goes for Texas and he's 8-4 at home with a 4.48 ERA. He's off two gems in which he allowed just 2 total runs to Detroit and the Angels. The Rangers are 31-8 this season at home at -150 to -175. Take 'em here.

This one seems pretty easy. Here we have a good Colorado starter in Jeff Francis (7-4 at home with a 4.02 ERA) vs. a bad starter in Kyle Davies (2-4 on the road with 6.02 ERA). And, we have a pretty big offensive advantage for Colorado. The Rockies score 5.5 per game at home. While Atlanta gets close to that on the road, they score just 4.3 per game vs. lefties like Francis. Colorado is 25-10 this season at home after having lost 2 of their last 3 games. Rockies and Francis here.