Mlb Free Tips - September 21, 2008

We missed yesterday and are hitting 60% over the past week good for +8.1 units. Today we like three games...

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Detroit at Cleveland (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cleveland -155 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.9)

The Indians are on a late-season mission. After sweeping the Twins, they are looking to do the same to the Tigers. They start rookie Scott Lewis who in two games, has struck out eight batters and not allowed a run in fourteen innings. Dontrelle Willis gets the call for Detroit and this guy is simply done. Since being recalled from the minors, he's pitched 16.3 innings, allowing 16 earned runs. The Indians have been able to put up runs all season long at home, where they are 44-36. Detroit hasn't performed this season as an underdog going just 16-35 as a dog of +100 to +150. They are also 11-20 after 5+ straight road games. I like the Indians to get sweep number two.

The Brewers just can't win, even with Sabathia on the mound. They are trying to avoid the sweep here and I don't think they'll do it. Their 5.5 game lead one month ago has shrunk to 2.5. Today they send a losing pitcher to the  mound vs. Bronson Arroyo who is 15-10 on the season and pitching very well. He's got a 1.33 ERA over his last three starts allowing just three earned runs in over 20 innings. The Reds, a solid home team that can score runs, are 10-4 in his last 14 starts.

Roy Oswalt is coming off a concerning performance last game. Versus Florida, he gamve up five runs in just six innings. In addition, as good has he has been, he's just 6-7 on the road this season. The fact is, Houston really struggles to score on the road, putting up just 4.1 runs per game. Over the last seven games, this Astros offense has managed just 2.0 runs per game! So here we have a pitcher with a losing record on the road, coming off a very bad game, and backed by a horrible offense - and they are laying heavy wood. I see value on the other side. 

Results: 1-2

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-20-2008
The Rockies find themselves under their most winnable set of circumstances in this one. They have been awful on the road and equally as bad against right-handed pitching. Put them in front of the home...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-19-2008
The Tampa Bay Rays are still disregarded by the oddsmakers despite putting together one of the best teams in baseball. The Rays are 55-23 at home, and consider the price of this game if it were the Ya...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-18-2008
The Royals are currently playing well, and have the good feeling of a team out of any playoff contention as they have won six straight, which makes it fun to go to the ballpark. The same can't be ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-17-2008
The Mariners have cashed in their chips for the season. When Seattle does go on the road their motivation is to get the game over with and get closer to closing the curtain on a dreadful 2008 season. ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-16-2008
The Reds have played well down the stretch as they have been 10-5 over their last 15 games. Bronson Arroyo has also been pitching at the top of his game, as the Reds are now 10-4 in his last 14 starts...