Baseball Prediction - September 21, 2007
1-1 yesterday for a slight gain. Three more MLB plays today.
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Tampa Bay +136 (risk 3 to win 4.1)
The Red Sox are really feeling the pressure from the Yankees. A runaway lead of 14.5 games has a flashback to '78, when the Sox crashed and burned after leading by 14.5 as well. The Sox have managed just eight runs in their last four games, and the lineup is not what it could be due to injuries. Ramirez, Youkilis and Crisp remain sidelined with injuries and the bullpen is short as well. The Sox shut down Okijima and Gagne has imploded with every critical game he has pitched, and even Papelbon gave it up against the Yankees and was touched off by a grand slam to Russ Adams in Toronto. Beckett has had a very good season, but even with that the Sox are just 11-8 over his last 19 starts. Scott Kazmir simply keeps the D-rays in every game, and they are 19-11 in his last 30 starts. Kazmir has been at his best over his last two starts giving up no earned runs while striking out 21 including a seven-inning zero run effort at Fenway. Kazmir has led the D-Rays to a 10-6 record after a loss as well. The D-Rays are 10-4 in his last 14 starts as an underdog, and 7-1 when the posted line is +130 or higher. We like the value in this one and will back the D-Rays.
Game: Baltimore at Texas (8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Baltimore +120 (risk 3 to win 3.6)
Luis Mendoza will make his first major league start tonight for the Rangers. Mendoza had a great AA season record wise at 15-4, but his overall numbers don't reflect that type of record, nor do his minor league stats which were 32-40 coming into this season. The Rangers are in a horrible stretch as they are 1-9 over their last 10 games, and the offense has managed just 11 runs in the last four games and they have been doubled up, being outscored 61-31 over this 10-game stretch, so the pitching has been absent as well. Baltimore is off a stretch of games that included Bos, NYY, Tor and LAA, so welcome a team they have a more favorable matchup with and took the opener last night. Victor Santos will make his third start for the Birds, and his first two were certainly not gems. Santos has a nearly 6 ERA on the season, but has had success against the sub-.500 teams on the season. Santos has a 3.26 ERA against sub-.500 teams, and the Rangers offense is really struggling right now. We like the Birds to make it back-to-back winners.
Game: Houston at St. Louis (8:10 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Houston +107 (risk 3 to win 3.2)
The Cards continued their major fade in September, running their record to just 2-13 over their last 15 games. The Cards have been out scored 102-54, and if you throw out the 11 they scored (also a loss), they have managed 43 runs in 14 games, or just three a game. That is nothing new for this Cardinal team, as they have managed three runs or less in 75 games on the season! Joel Piniero has struggled as well, and the only team to see him twice were the Cubs, and they ended up beating the Cards 12-3 the second time around. Brandon Backe seems to be getting his arm strength back after spending the bulk of the season on the DL. His last outing was his best, allowing just two runs, and three hits over six innings. The Astros are averaging eight runs per game over their last six, and we like them to make it two in a row over the punchless Cards.
Results: 1-2
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-20-2007
The White Sox have played well down the stretch, having gone 5-2 in their last seven games. The offense has been sluggish most of the year, but is at a high point right now, averaging six runs a game ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-19-2007
The Mets have totally collapsed. They had a 7.5 game lead on September 10, and have watched it disappear and are now clinging to a 1.5 game lead with the Phillies winning six straight. The Mets have g...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-18-2007
The Dodgers have quietly gone 17-9 in their last 26 games, and it is because of their pitching, as they have held opponents to four runs or less in 20 of those 26 games. One of the reasons has been th...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-17-2007
The Tigers put themselves in a bad position by struggling in the second half, but they are putting pressure on the Indians and Yankees now. They have won five straight and are now 10-2 over their...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-16-2007
The Pirates let a 5-0 lead slip away last night, but still remain the better team here with a pitching advantage as well. Paul Maholm has simply been a different pitcher since he carried a 5.82 ERA th...
