Mlb Free Picks - September 20, 2009

We needed one, and got a big bounce back day yesterday, going 5-0 for +11.8 units. Today I like four games...

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	23-15 last 38 picks	61%	+$1900
MLB	224-171 last 395 picks	57%	+$11100
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
WNBA	115-88 last 203 picks	57%	+$4520
TOTAL			+$29980

 

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Philadelphia at Atlanta (1:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Atlanta -110 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

Both of these teams are red hot right now, but Atlanta is at home, with the better pitcher. Cliff Lee has been very good this season, posting a 14-11 mark and 3.00 ERA. But, it's Tommy Hanson who has been the better pitcher. Hanson is 10-3 with a 2.65 ERA. Over his last three starts, he's gone 20 innings posting 20 strikeouts and allowing just 10 hits and one earned run! Atlanta has bombed LHP all season long, putting 5.3 runs per game vs. southpaws. The Braves are 47-34 this season vs. winning teams. I like the Braves at home here.

The Brewers won't be playing in October this year but that doesn't mean they are shutting things down just yet. They are shutting down Gallardo after this game and he and his team are going to want to post a win in his final appearance, especially with him coming off a bad performance last outing vs. the Cubs. At home this season, Gallardo owns a winning record and a 3.31 ERA. He's facing Felipe Paulino who has been terrible. He's 2-9 overall with a 6.06 ERA. On the road, he's 0-5 with an 8.37 ERA. Throw in very little run support from an Astros' lineup that gets just 3.9 runs per game on the road, and a poor bullpen (5.03 road ERA) and this has the makings for a rough day for the Stros. Houston is just 9-18 in their last 27 games vs. losing teams. I like the Brew Crew here.

The starting pitching discrepancy here is big. Felipe Paulino owns a 0-5 road record and 8.37 road start ERA while Yovani Gallardo is 7-6 at home with a 3.31 ERA. If Paulino and his weak bullpen, as expected, get hit, it'll be very hard for a lackluster Houston offense to generate enough runs to stay in this one. Houston is 13-17 vs. the runline as a road dog at odds of up to -160 this season. I like the Brewers to win by two or more runs today.

The Indians have had a horrible season. Expected to make the playoffs back in April, they are in the midst of their worst season in about two decades. They have dropped ten straight road games coming into this one. They've scored just 17 runs in their last seven games. And, they start a pitcher today who is 3-11 on the season (2-5 on the road with an 8.08 ERA). So why aren't they a bigger dog here? Yes, Dana Eveland hasn't pitched well for Oakland. But that's not a reason to make this game close to even money. The Athletics are 30-23 this season vs. losing teams including 19-11 vs. teams at .460 or worse. Eveland is 11-3 the past two seasons vs. losing teams. Nuff said.

Cleveland is just 35-41 vs. the run line on the road this season while Oakland is 38-35 at home. Over their past seven games, the Indians are 2-5 vs. the run line, scoring 2.4 runs per game. Oakland is 5-2. It doesn't really get any worse than Fauston Carmona. He's 2-5 on the road this season with an 8.08 ERA and in his last three starts, his ERA is pushing 10.00. Cleveland's offense is anemic and that's not a good sign for them. Over the past two seasons, when scoring under five runs for 6+ straight games, the Indians are 0-9 vs. the runline in their next outing. On the road the past two seasons, they are 1-9 vs. the runline when coming off 5+ straight losses. I like Oakland here on the runline at these generous odds. 

The Cards have won seven of eight vs. the Cubs here at home this season and I like them to make it eight of nine with a win today. They go with Adam Wainwright who has been good this season. He's 18-8 with a 2.59 ERA. At home he's given up just 25 earned runs in 119 innings, while striking out 107. The Cubs have Zambrano on the mound but the run support this team provides on the road is horrible. Chicago is just 26-36 this season vs. winning teams including 9-18 in their last 27 such games. Meanwhile, over the past two seasons Wainwright is 9-1 in post-All Star play vs. winning teams the past two seasons. The Cubs are 8-19 this season after a game in which they scored just one run and they are 4-25 as an underdog of up to +150! The Cardinals get the call here.

Chicago averages just 3.8 runs per game on the road. That's not good when facing a starter in Adam Wainwright that owns a 2.59 ERA on the season. It gets even better for Wainwright at home where has been superb, posting a 1.89 ERA in 17 games. With him on the mound, the Cardinals are 30-21 vs. the runline the past two seasons. That includes a 9-1 mark in post-All Star play the past two seasons. I like St. Louis' chances at a big win in this game.

Results: 4-3

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-19-2009
The Cleveland Indians are seeing the results of their dealings before the trade deadline, which basically threw in the towel for '09. The Indians dealt their best pitcher Cliff Lee and their best ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-18-2009
One good note for the Rays is that they are back at home where they have been a tough to beat team for twoyears now. The Rays have raised the bar as they have become the winningest home team in baseba...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-17-2009
This one looks so easy on the surface as the Nats have been horrible while the Phil's are getting ready to defend their World Series title from a year ago. That is until you conider that late in t...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-16-2009
There is always an anticipation of a pitcher's duel whenever two high caliber starters take the mound. Such is the expctation when Josh Johnson of the Marlins squares off vs Joel Piniero of the Ca...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-15-2009
Cliff Lee has developed a reputation that puts the oddsmakers in a bad place. He has pitched very well for the past two years, but  like any other pitcher, he hits the wall and loses his way. Rig...