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Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
MLB Baseball Premium Edition
September 20, 2006

darrell,

1-2 last night for our first losing night in a while. Three picks today...

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Good luck today...

The Wunderdog


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Game: San Francisco at Colorado (3:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Colorado +104 (risk 200 to win 208)

Aaron Cook has a 3.93 ERA at home. Jason Schmidt has a solid road ERA but he's 4-7 away from the Bay. He's just 9-17 over the past two seasons in second-half play vs. teams scoring 4.8+ runs per game and Colorado is pounding the ball right now. San Francisco can't seem to win right now as they've lost 4 straight giving up 52 runs over those four games! No that wasn't a typo. The Rockies have won 6 of 8 here at Coors Field vs. SF this year. They are also 10-1 this season off a win over a division opponent in which they scored 10+ runs. Finally, road teams that have allowed 8 runs or more 2 straight games vs. an opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more 2 straight games are just 17-44 (28%) over the last 5 seasons. I like the Rockies with momentum and lots of offense right now.


Game: Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Philadelphia -255 (risk 200 to win 78)

Yes, very big line. But one well worth laying. Philly goes for their third straight series win and with Brett Myers, I think they get it. Myers is hot right now having not lost in 5 starts, posting a 2.57 ERA over that span. Versus the Cubs, he's 4-2 with a 2.68 ERA. Countering for Chicago is Les Warlond who has only started one game. In that game he was tagged by St. Louis for 6 runs and was yanked in the third inning. He's pitched a total of ten and two thirds innings and has given up 10 runs. Chicago is 29-47 on the road this year. Philadelphis scores 5.4 per game at home. Phillies too much for the Cubs here.


Game: Cleveland at Oakland (10:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Oakland -173 (risk 200 to win 116)

Since the start of last month, Oakland has been nearly unbeatable at home (.783). Esteban Loaiza has been great here all season posting a 6-3 mark and 3.86 ERA. Cleveland counters with Fausto Carmona who is 1-9 on the year! Cleveland is struggling having lost eight of eleven. THeir offense has gone in the tank. Home favorites of -175 to -250 batting .265 or worse coming off a win by 4 runs or more are 67-11 (86%) over the past decade. Take the Athletics.


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How much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick = 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks. Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily over the long-term. For more, see my write-up on Bankroll Management.
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Good Luck.

The Wunderdog

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