Sports Handicapping Free Mlb Picks - September 19, 2009

We split our four picks yesterday going 2-2 for -1.8 units. We put that behind us and go with five premium selections today.

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WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	23-15 last 38 picks	61%	+$1900
MLB	219-171 last 390 picks	56%	+$9920
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
WNBA	115-88 last 203 picks	57%	+$4520
TOTAL			+$28800

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Cleveland at Oakland (4:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Oakland -110 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Cleveland Indians are seeing the results of their dealings before the trade deadline, which basically threw in the towel for '09. The Indians dealt their best pitcher Cliff Lee and their best hitter Victor Martinez, from a team that was already in trouble. The stretch drive has led them to testing and evaluating players, and the results have been ugly. The Tribe has dropped six straight games, and 10 of 11. They are also 3-15 in their last 18. The loss of Martinez and the rookies being evaluated has turned a good offense into a poor one. They have produced just four runs or less in eight of their last nine, been shutout twice, and scored a single run in two others. The A's meanwhile, are closing strong and have won five straight, and are 10-2 in their last 12 games and are getting it from both ends, good solid pitching and great timely hitting. The A's have outscored their opponents 70-33 in the 12 game run or by over three runs a game. I'll back the A's in this one.

Looking at the state of these two teams right now, we see that one has packed it in and the other is playing as good as they have all season. The Indians have been punchless, and are scoring four or fewer runs in eight of nine, and one or less in four of nine. The A's are brutilizing opponents over their last 12 games, going 10-2 but winning by the count of 70-33 or better than three runs per game. Getting almost 2-1 odds on the runline makes a lot of sense and is certainly laden with value, thus a play on Oakland here on the runline.

There are a couple of things to look at here, and the one that stands out the most is Chris Carpenter. Carpenter, when healthy, is one of the best pitchers in the game and at 16-4 on the season the evidence is pretty clear - he is healthy. He is already 2-0 this season vs. the Cubs and for his career he is 9-3 with a 3.02 ERA against them. That pales in contrast to Cubs' starter Ryan Dempster who owns a less than impressive 4.58 career ERA vs. the Cardinals. The Cubs have failed miserably against top pitchers, those with a WHIP of 1.15 or less, as they are just 5-21 in their last 26 games against them, and overall they are now 1-9 in their last 10 against a winning team. Dempster certainly has done nothing to stop the bleeding as he has led the Cubs to just a 2-8 mark in his last 10 starts as an underdog. Cards are 90-37 in Carpenters last 127 starts. I'll go with St. Louis in this one.

This gets to sound like a broken record, but the Rays, even last year when they went to the World Series had a losing record on the road and the situation hasn't changed, if anything it has gotten worse. Such hasn't been the case for a longtime at home where the Rays own the best record in baseball for almost a full season of home games. The Rays, with their win last night raised that home record to 102-46 over their last 148 played in Tampa. They also raised the mark to 51-12 when favored on a moneyline from -151 to -200. The Jays are now 3-13 in their last 16 vs. a right-hand starter. Romero has not been able to win inside the division as the Jay's are now 0-7 in his last seven starts. The Jays have struggled in this strong division anyway, with a 16-41 mark over their last 57. Too much home dominance to pass by here. I'll take the Rays in this one.

The way the Rays have played at home for what seems like an eternity deems a runline play. The Rays' 102-46 mark seperates them from any other team in baseball right now at home. The fact that the Jays have been at their worst inside this potent division just adds to the logic. The Jays are just 16-41 in their last 57 inside the AL East, and with Romero on the hill have gone for the collar in their last seven, at 0-7. Overall, the Jays are just 5-17 in their last 22 played here, and have won just once in their last six. I'll go with the Rays on the runline here.

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• View our 2009 baseball pick results here.
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• Here we show our free mlb baseball predictions.
• Don't forget to read our mlb against-the-spread records here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-18-2009
One good note for the Rays is that they are back at home where they have been a tough to beat team for twoyears now. The Rays have raised the bar as they have become the winningest home team in baseba...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-17-2009
This one looks so easy on the surface as the Nats have been horrible while the Phil's are getting ready to defend their World Series title from a year ago. That is until you conider that late in t...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-16-2009
There is always an anticipation of a pitcher's duel whenever two high caliber starters take the mound. Such is the expctation when Josh Johnson of the Marlins squares off vs Joel Piniero of the Ca...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-15-2009
Cliff Lee has developed a reputation that puts the oddsmakers in a bad place. He has pitched very well for the past two years, but  like any other pitcher, he hits the wall and loses his way. Rig...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-14-2009
It is down to playing out the string for these two teams. The Padres were not expected to do well in the NL West, but have done a great job all season at home where they stand a more-than-competitive ...