MLB Baseball
Premium Edition |
September 19, 2006 |
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darrell,
2-1 last night pushing our record over the past two weeks to 21-9 (50-17 on a star basis for +10.7 units). Two picks tonight.
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Game: Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia (7:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 stars on Philadelphia -218 (risk 300 to win 138)
While the Cubs have been winning lately (six of eight) and we've backed them selectively, I think they are an excellent fade tonight. Most of their recent wins have come at home and they are away tonight. On the road this season they are 29-46 where they average 4.3 runs per game. Phildelphia gets 5.4 per game at home and they get to face Chicago's Wade Miller. Miller has started two games and lasted just 8 total innings. His ERA is 6.75. Jamie Moyer will go for Philly and he's got a 3.38 ERA in his last three starts. Over the past two seasons, Moyer is 18-5 as a home favorite. Phillies here.
Game: Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City (8:10 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 stars on Kansas City +120 (risk 200 to win 240)
KC has played the role of spoiler nicely this month. They won series against Minnesota and Chicago - two playoff contenders. The Royals have won 11 of 18 overall and they've been decent at home all year long. With the pressure clearly on their opponents' shoulders and not theirs, the Royals are playing decent baseball. At home this season they are scoring 5.4 per game and over their last seven games they are getting 6.3 per game. The Angels are averaging 2.4 runs per game over that same span. Tonight JOrge De La Rosa takes the mound for KC. He, like his team, is playing well lately (2.30 ERA in last three starts). The Angels are just 31-34 this year as a favorite of -100 to -150. I like the Royals in this one.
Game: Pittsburgh at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 stars on Los Angeles Dodgers -173 (risk 300 to win 173)
We've cashed a lot over the past couple of weeks fading Tampa Bay on the road (the league's worst road team). Well, Pittsburgh isn't much better as they own the league's second-worst road mark at 22-53. They've won only 8 of 33 vs. winning teams and they're 1-11 on the road vs. teams batting .275 or better. The Dodgers come into this one having won 9 of the last 10 games vs. Pittsburgh played here in LA. Hong-Chih Kuo gets his third start. He's pitched in 25 games and amassed a 4.25 ERA. In his two starts, he's been stellar going 12 innings and allowing just 2 runs. Pittsburgh averages just 3.9 per game on the road and that's dropped to 3.4 over their last seven games. LA gets 5.5 per game at home. Fade the Pirates.
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| How
much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every
star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick
= 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management. |
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