Major League Baseball Pick - September 18, 2009

We gave back three units yesterday as we missed with our runline play on Washington. We move forward today with four premium MLB picks...

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WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	23-15 last 38 picks	61%	+$1900
MLB	217-169 last 386 picks	56%	+$10100
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
WNBA	113-86 last 199 picks	57%	+$4980
TOTAL			+$29440

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Toronto at Tampa Bay (7:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Tampa Bay -200 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.5)

One good note for the Rays is that they are back at home where they have been a tough to beat team for twoyears now. The Rays have raised the bar as they have become the winningest home team in baseball, in what amounts to almost a complete season's worth of games. The Rays sport a 101-46 mark in their last 147 played in Tampa, and when favored in this range from -151 to -200, they have been nearly impossible to beat at 50-12. They have also dominated right-hand pitching to the tune of a 73-29 mark at home. The Jays are having nightmares against right-hand pitching at just 8-20 in their last 28. Recently, they are just 2-10 in their last 12. Richmond hasn't been providing a winning touch as the Jays stand just 1-7 in his last eight starts. Too much to overcome here, Rays get the call.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been a hot team, winners of five straight, but the Braves have been even hotter as they have won seven straight. J.A. Happ has been sidlined with an oblique strain and will make his first appearance in about two weeks. He is a top pitcher, but the lack of mound duty in live action could be a problem against a hot team. The Braves aren't only hot, they have chewed up lefthanders all season as they average 4.5 runs a game, but that soars to 5.3 against lefthanders. The Phillies are hot, but when they have faced teams with a winning record they have dropped their last five. No cupcake here, I'll go with the Braves in this one.

The Cubs and the Cards have both been surprises. The Cubs have surprised by how poorly they have played. The Cards, by how well they have played. The Cubs have feasted at home as usual, where they are 14 games over .500, but the road ledger has kept them out of the playoffs as they are nine games under. The Cards have closed the gap down to three games behind the Dodgers for the best record in the NL, so these games still take on meaning for them. They have taken care of business as a favorite at 39-14 in their last 53, while the Cubs faltering against the winning teams at just 1-8 in their last nine, and just 1-5 in Lilly's last six road starts. The Cards are fresh off a day off, and have gone 8-1 after a day of rest and are an amazing 21-5 in their last 26 series openers. I'll go with the Cards here.

Felix Hernandez has had a brilliant season and will be gathering a lot of votes when the Cy Young voting takes place. That may be the case against everyone else, but hasn't been the case against this Yankees' offensive machine. King Felix sports a 5.92 ERA against the Bombers over his career, and between hits and walks from this patient Yankees' lineup he has allowed nearly two baserunners per inning. A.J. Burnett has really struggled for the Yankees, featuring an ERA of 7.67 in his last five starts. This looks like a pitchers duel, but looking inside the numbers, it's more like a bad spot for two good pitchers. The Bombers have played to an 18-7-1 mark to the OVER against a team with a winning home record, while the Mariners have a 12-3-2 mark to the OVER in a series opener. Two good pitchers in a bad situation points to the OVER here.

Results: 2-2

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-17-2009
This one looks so easy on the surface as the Nats have been horrible while the Phil's are getting ready to defend their World Series title from a year ago. That is until you conider that late in t...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-16-2009
There is always an anticipation of a pitcher's duel whenever two high caliber starters take the mound. Such is the expctation when Josh Johnson of the Marlins squares off vs Joel Piniero of the Ca...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-15-2009
Cliff Lee has developed a reputation that puts the oddsmakers in a bad place. He has pitched very well for the past two years, but  like any other pitcher, he hits the wall and loses his way. Rig...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-14-2009
It is down to playing out the string for these two teams. The Padres were not expected to do well in the NL West, but have done a great job all season at home where they stand a more-than-competitive ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-13-2009
The Dodgers own a 41-29 road record, scoring 5.2 runs per game (way more than they average at home). The Giants are good at home, but their offense is weak. Chad Billingsley has been better than Brad ...