Sports Handicapping Free Mlb Picks - September 18, 2007

Five picks tonight.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado (3:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Los Angeles Dodgers +107 (risk 3 to win 3.2)

The Dodgers have quietly gone 17-9 in their last 26 games, and it is because of their pitching, as they have held opponents to four runs or less in 20 of those 26 games. One of the reasons has been the conversion of Chad Billingsley into the starting rotation. Billingsley was roughed up before he got comfortable, and has now won four of his last five starts while pitching to a 1.64 ERA. The Rockies rode a stretch of winning 13 of 15 Francis' starts, but have since gone 3-4, but Francis' struggles began long before that. He has pitched to a 5.30 ERA in his last 16 starts, and has not worked beyond five innings in seven of them. The Rockies have won 20 of Francis' 31 starts, but it isn't what he has done, it is the support he has gotten. The Rockies have averaged 6.65 runs a game in those starts and three runs a game in the 11 losses with him on the hill. Billingsley will keep that total down today, and the Dodgers will take GAME 1 of this doubleheader. THIS IS A GAME 1 PICK.

The Mets had everything going their way, and then the Phillies come in and sweep them again, and the lead is suddenly slashed to three with last night's loss to the Nats. The wheels have completely come off. The Mets have made 10 errors in the last two games, the bullpen is in shambles and they have been out-scored 46-24 in losing five of six. The Mets were perfect in John Maine's first seven starts, as he was pitching to a 1.79 ERA. They have since been just 11-11, and his ERA over those 22 starts has been a mediocre 4.42. He has lost his command in recent starts, as he has now walked 23 in his last 41 innings. The Nats are now 9-6 in their last 15, with last night's win over the Mets. Joel Hanrahan was bombed for nine earned runs in a start against the Rockies, but has pitched to a 4.15 ERA otherwise, so his overall numbers are misleading and the Nats are 5-3 in those other eight starts. The Nats offense has clicked for five runs a game for the last 15, and the Mets have an over-worked pen as they have allowed 22 runs in their last two games. We like the Nats to make it two straight over the Mets.

Mike Mussina has been anything but an ace this season. He has a 5.28 ERA and a losing record despite playing for a team that scores nearly six runs per game (RPG). In his last three starts he's 1-2 with an 11.32 ERA, lasting just 3.4 innings on average in those three starts. Opposing him is Jon Leicester who hasn't seen much action. But, he boasts a 3.37 ERA in his starts. So we get to fade a pitcher who has been poor and getting worse against one that is pitching well and we get over 2-to-1 odds. Right now bettors believe the Yankees can't lose, giving us tremendous value here. Baltimore is actually hotter offensively than the Yankees right now. The O's are averaging 5.1-rpg their last seven while New York is averaging 5.0. If there's any games Baltimore plays well in, it's division games. They average over one run more per game on offense against division foes and while they have a 64-85 overall record, they are .500 against division opponents. The Yankees have been horrible plays in division games this year, going 31-29 for a massive -16.6 units. That confirms what we know - there's great value with this line on Baltimore tonight. Should they Yankees win? Yes. Are they a good bet? No way. Take Baltimore at this massive line.

The White Sox own a 9-3 lead in this series this season. Yes, Gil Meche has pitched well but he's still 8-12 and 4-6 at home. Chicago's offense came alive last game and we think that carries over into tonight's game. Kansas City's run support has just disappeared as they are averaging 3.1 per game over their last seven games. KC has won money for bettors on the road but given most of it back at home. Meche seems to sink to the level of his competition. With him starting, his teams have gone 14-22 against teams outscored by their competition by 1+ runs per game. He's also 2-9 at home in games with a total between nine and 9.5 and the Royals are 11-27 overall this season at home with this total range.

Carlos Silva takes the mound with a groin injury. He's 0-1 with a 6.35 ERA against the Rangers this season and has a losing record overall. If he doesn't perform very well, the Twins could be in real trouble. Minnesota scores just 4.0 runs per game on the season at home and they are not scoring right now. Texas gets 5.1 per game on the road and they are scoring right now (5.9 per game their last seven). We like Texas' offense to lead them to a victory here.

Results: 1-4

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-17-2007
The Tigers put themselves in a bad position by struggling in the second half, but they are putting pressure on the Indians and Yankees now. They have won five straight and are now 10-2 over their...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-16-2007
The Pirates let a 5-0 lead slip away last night, but still remain the better team here with a pitching advantage as well. Paul Maholm has simply been a different pitcher since he carried a 5.82 ERA th...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-15-2007
The odds makers continue to under value the D-Backs. They lead all of baseball at +19.44 units against the moneyline, yet they continue to get the short side of the odds, even as they have won seven o...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-14-2007
The Nationals have certainly held their own this season, and they will have a lot working for them as they open a series against the Braves. The Nationals have played well at home having won five stra...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-13-2007
The Oakland A's completed the first half of the season with a 42-39 record. They have since gone 29-37, and just 6-12 over their last 18. The surprise has been the total collapse of the pitching s...