darrell,

Sorry about no picks yesterday - had a server crash which didn't allow me to send picks. Coming off the 5-0 day on Saturday, we've got three selections tonight...

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Good luck today...

Game: Atlanta at Washington (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Washington -111 (risk 200 to win 180)

Kyle Davies is horrible. He's got a 2-5 record with a 7.68 ERA. He's off three terrible performances vs. the Mets and Phillies in which he lasted an average of 3.3 innings per start giving up 16 earned runs in 10 total innings. On top of that, Atlanta's offense isn't providing the kind of run support their pitchers are used to. Over their last seven games they are averaging just 4.0 runs per game vs. 5.1 on the season. Meanwhile, Washington is pounding the ball averaging 5.6 per game over the same span. Home teams with a batting average between .255 to .269 facing a poor starting pitcher (with an ERA over 5.70) are 38-12 (76%) in September games over the past five seasons. The Nats are taking care of business vs. poor teams as they are 13-5 at home vs. losing teams since the All-Star break. Small price here on Washington.

Three straight losses to Pittsburgh? Talk about letdown for the Mets who could have clinched the NL East with just one victory over the weekend. Well, Pittsburgh is actually decent at home so don't read too much into that. It actually sets us up for a nice game here as the line on the Mets is lower than it should be and they are motivated to get it here at home. They should get it facing Brian Moehler who is 5-8 on the road with a 6.75 ERA. Steve Traschel hasn't pitched all that well this season but he's still 14-7. Backing him up is a great bullpen with a 3.18 home ERA. Florida's has a 6.07 road ERA. Moehler hasn't gone since September 9th and starters working on 7+ days of rest that give up 7+ hits per start are just 36-98 (27%) in the underdog role onver the past five seasons. Moehler is just 3-14 the past two seasons vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5+ runs per game. Meanwhile, Traschel is 17-5 over the past three seasons vs. losing teams. Mets to clinch it here.

Roy Oswalt takes the mound to stop the Houston skid. The Stros have lost three straight and six of seven. But, he gets a team that is also struggling. The Red have lost four of five and they are averging just 2.6 runs per game over their last seven. Get this: Oswalt is 15-1 with a 2.63 ERA vs. Cincinnati! He's 7-3 at home this season with a 2.65 ERA and he's off several gems (allowed 4 earned runs in 23 innings in his last three starts). So, he should keep Cincinnati way down here. The question is, can Houston score? Against Kyle Lohse the answer is yes. Lohse is 1-5 on the road with a 5.80 ERA and he's off a pounding by San Diego who clocked him for 7 earned runs in just 2.3 innings on the 13th. Oswalt and the Astros here.