Baseball Handicapping - September 17, 2009

We ended last night 3-4, giving back a couple. One MLB premium pick today...

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WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	23-15 last 38 picks	61%	+$1900
MLB	217-168 last 385 picks	56%	+$10400
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
WNBA	112-85 last 197 picks	57%	+$5010
TOTAL			+$29770

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Washington at Philadelphia (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Washington +1.5 runs +120 (runline) (risk 3 to win 3.6)

This one looks so easy on the surface as the Nats have been horrible while the Phil's are getting ready to defend their World Series title from a year ago. That is until you conider that late in the season, the moneyline prices begin to go through the roof, and here are the Phillies at -300. That also effects the runline price here and it is where the value gets enlarged. Cole Hamels is a solid pitcher, but looking at the Phillies' 28 games he has started, their 15-13 record is less than the team has achieved, percentage wise, on the season. When you factor in that if Hamels was on the mound to a would be -1.5 runline, the Phillies would drop from 15-13, to a woeful 8-20. That is because of the Phillies' 15 wins on the season with him on the mound, they have won seven of them by a single run. That -1.5 runline record then moves to 8-20 and laying odds in the process. The Nats have lost 22 games by a single run, netting them at 72-73 if they were playing the season at +1.5. So a closer look at this one shows the Phillies 8-20 or 28.5% winners with Hammels facing a -1.5 runline, and the Nats at a 50-50 proposition. The difference is that we are getting in here with a positive expectation, as the underdog on the runline. I'll go with the Nats on the runline here.

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Check out our updated 2009 baseball season picks.
• Hop over to our baseball picks blog here.
• Hop over to our betting mlb baseball here.
• Check out MLB prior predictions here.
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• Here we show our mlb sports book.
• Updated today: Baseball spreads.
• Here we show our mlb baseball handicapping.
• View our updated baseball ATS standings.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-16-2009
There is always an anticipation of a pitcher's duel whenever two high caliber starters take the mound. Such is the expctation when Josh Johnson of the Marlins squares off vs Joel Piniero of the Ca...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-15-2009
Cliff Lee has developed a reputation that puts the oddsmakers in a bad place. He has pitched very well for the past two years, but  like any other pitcher, he hits the wall and loses his way. Rig...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-14-2009
It is down to playing out the string for these two teams. The Padres were not expected to do well in the NL West, but have done a great job all season at home where they stand a more-than-competitive ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-13-2009
The Dodgers own a 41-29 road record, scoring 5.2 runs per game (way more than they average at home). The Giants are good at home, but their offense is weak. Chad Billingsley has been better than Brad ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-12-2009
The Angels have been a lethal team against left-hand pitching. They have collected the win in 38 of their last 56 played against them and are on a nice 9-2 run against southpaws in their last 11 at ho...